Preview England vs New Zealand

England have only scored 20 points+ in 3 of the 10 games (ignoring Fiji) under Lancaster. The match with the most points scored  (27 against South Africa in 2nd Test in June) featured Flood at 10, Tuilagi at 12 and Joseph at 13. Joseph actually made more tackles that carries in that game but Ashton’s support running did assist 2 tries. Throughout 2012, a chargedown or breakaway still looks the most likely way England will score. An actual backs move that relies on handling, vision and the right decisions being taken still looks a way off and the oft hyped winger Ashton has failed to score in his last 11 Internationals.  His confidence looks shot but he remains in the team while Sharples and Monye have both been discarded. The desire to play at a quicker tempo compared to the Six Nations is evident but the execution is missing.

Visitors New Zealand were last defeated on 27 August 2011 by Australia and have won 19 of the 20 games since. They have won 12/13 games in 2012 by 34-12 and scored over 20 points in 12 of those games (drew the game they didn’t by 18-18). They have also crossed the line 47 times (so their 3.6 tries a match in 2012 favours comparably with England’s 1.3) and conceded 14 in that period.

With All Blacks games this season, the main betting question has usually revolved around how many points they will win by and nothing has changed for their final Test.  England were favourites for the Australia match, +1 on the handicap against the Boks, however they are  a whopping 10.0 to beat New Zealand  and have a +17 handicap available. The recent games at Twickenham between the sides have seen scores of 26-16, 19-6,32-6,41-20,and 23-19. As has already been covered, the hosts are averaging a score of 18-18 this year and the visitors 34-12.

New Zealand clearly edge the head to head record and despite possessing home advantage, England are under pressure. I can the All Blacks wanting to sign off with style and despite a black mark against them for a high number of handling errors in 2012, they dominate the rest of the stats. As usual these numbers are provided by the excellent Ruckingoodstats.

New Zealand steal (13.2%) more than double the amount of lineouts that they lose (5.5%), which could be interesting against a rookie hooker in Tom Youngs who struggled to connect with Tom Wood last week. If they revert to his club team mate Parling too often then surely that will become predictable.  As with a number of stats for England this year, a one-off performance skewers the averages – whereas New Zealand have been more consistent. In this case, they stole 33% of lineouts against Italy in the Six Nations. The All Blacks are favouring the middle (47%) and England the front (50%) so there should be too many surprises where the ball  is thrown. Bar one game against Argentina, New Zealand’s scrum has been pretty solid whereas again England have fluctuated between being penalised a lot (Wales, South Africa first 2 Tests in June, Australia) to having dominance (Ireland, Italy).

Both teams have seen less than 50% possession and territory, England’s numbers have improved per game since the 2nd June Test in South Africa which may point to this desire to improve the attack.  The difference as you’d expect is what they do with the ball when they have it – the All Blacks break 1 in 4.5 tackles compared to England 1 in 9.5 and offload 8.9 times a game as opposed to 3.9. They also make roughly double the amount of line breaks.

Without wishing to be too negative – I don’t think England have the creativity to score the requisite number of tries needed to beat the All Blacks, the balance in the backrow to handle McCaw nor the kicking game to keep them pinned back. It’s tough to see past the -15 available for the visitors even accounting for the stomach bug affecting them.

If you are looking for a reason to get behind the hosts then perhaps the declining All Blacks scores of 51,42,33 may act as the flimsiest of straws to clutch.


Who better to provide a rugby masterclass than New Zealand? Unbeaten in 2012 with 12 wins and one draw against Australia, they are playing at an astonishing level even by their own imperious standards.
Young blood in Aaron Smith, Brodie Retallick, Luke Romano and Julian Savea have eased into the starting XV without any concern, assuring that this All Blacks side did not peak when they finally recaptured the Rugby World Cup last October. If anything they have improved; stronger, faster and more clinical than that trophy-winning side.


England: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Manu Tuilagi, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 Mike Brown, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 Tom Wood, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Alex Corbisiero.
Replacements: 16 David Paice, 17 David Wilson, 18 Mako Vunipola, 19 Courtney Lawes 20 James Haskell, 21 Danny Care, 22 Freddie Burns, 23 Jonathan Joseph.

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie
Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 KevenMealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Charlie Faumunia, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Victor Vito, 21 Piri Weepu, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Ben Smith.

When you possess the greatest skill set, set-piece, squad and attacking threats as New Zealand do, the game is relatively simple. For every injury to Carter, you have Aaron Cruden. For every suspension for Hore, you have Keven Mealamu.
Whatever your allegiance, there is no denying the superiority of this All Blacks side - after all, they have beaten every other side they've come across in 2012. A time will come when New Zealand are no longer the world's best and this vintage crop will be looked back on. Best to savour it while it lasts.

Strangely enough I like the reserves for England more than some of the starters.

Pete reckons New Zealand by 18