Saturday, November 24, 2012

International Matches Nov 24

All times GMT so deduct 6hrs for Houston
 

International Matches

Saturday , November 24
Italy vs Australia 14:00
Ireland vs Argentina 14:00
England vs South Africa 14:30
Scotland vs Tonga 15:00
France vs Samoa 17:00

Wales vs New Zealand 17:15
Also 5am Houston time
Georgia vs Fiji
and 8am Houston time
Romania vs USA

Pete reckons
Australia by 18
Ireland by8
South Africa by 5
Scotland by 18
France by 12
New Zealand by 21
No team sheets for Georgia vs Fiji.
I reckon both Georgia and Fiji will have the few pros that normally play for them unavailable so they can play for club sides.
Fiji should still win by 10

USA should bt Romania. USA have at least 5 good pros vs Romania's 3. USA also has a couple of ex pros. New USA coach is trying to play a good style of rugby. Expansive with offloading in the tackle.
USA by 18


A few quick observations and facts
 
ABs vs Wales
The All Blacks have won 24 consecutive test matches against Wales over the last 59 years, and that is the longest sequence of wins for any international team where both sides have had at least one victory over the other.

This weekend's test will be the 90th Wales have played at the Millennium Stadium. They have a 53 percent winning record against all nations on this ground, but have never beaten the All Blacks in the seven tests played there since 2002. The All Blacks average points spread per game against Wales at the Millennium Stadium is 39 for and 14 against.

Wales have scored 23 tries against the All Blacks, which is a long way short of the 108 tries the All Blacks have scored against them.

The All Blacks have managed not to concede a try against Wales on 14 occasions, the most recent time being June 2010, at Carisbrook. The last time the All Blacks kept Wales try-less in Cardiff was in 2009.


It is 10yrs to this month that New Zealand last lost a test match in Europe. Since the loss of 31-28 to England in 2002 they have won a straight 27 games in Europe.

The ABs are now unbeaten in 19 matches against all teams.
 

If a small island of just 4 million people can win so many games, how come we all aren't playing this style of rugby?
Although ABs are without Carter they should still win by 21 against a demoralized Welsh team that has lost it's way

Italy vs Aussie
Italy's national side is practically the Benetton Treviso team which so far this year has played 8 in Rabo Direct league and only won 3.
The remainder of the side come from Zebre who have played 7 and not won a game yet.
How on earth the wallabies do not score quite a few tries will be beyond me.
I have Aus by 18 and even that should be too little.
The Italians have a few top class pros. Namely Masi who is really fast and plays for Wasps and Castrogiovani who plays for Leicester. Orquero and Parisse are also top class. But that is it. If the other players were of suitable quality, they too would have moved up to better teams in France and England.

Ireland vs Argies
Once again the Argies field 5 amateurs in their starting line up. How on earth can amateurs do well against full pros. If they were that good they would already have a contract with a top club.Argies have played well for each other. But if a team plays an adventurous and expansive game game against them the Argies will buckle. You just can't play a game where you simply run into them ala Northern Hemisphere style.

Scotland vs Tonga.
Tonga have 5 first class pros and 2 good pros plying their trade in ITM Cup in NZ. My view is that any of D1 sides in ITM cup could compete well with the top clubs in UK.
So, with Tonga fielding 8 amateurs in their starting lineup, you have to hope that the Scots can run up a good score. The Scots' only handicap is their English Coach.... Robinson.

France vs Samoa
I correctly called Samoa vs Wales. Samoa have a side of good pros with a couple of amateurs in the starting line up and will give the French a good run. But I still think Froggies will win by at least 12.

England vs SA
This is a hard one. As an Englishman I so want to have an England side I can support.
Lancaster has been trying to play a more expansive game, but still goes back to conservative style every now and again. Case in point was against Aus last week. Tuilagi and Ashton hardly touched the ball all day, and they are superb players in the backs.
The Bok will run hard at England and will only get the ball out wide as a last resort. But anyone who has played against a Saffie knows they are a hard bunch.
So, depending upon which England team shows up I predict a Bok win by at least 5.
No Habana for Bok, so they have lost one of the hardest workers in the game.

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