Wednesday, September 5, 2012

ITM Cup RD 4 preview

Southland v Otago


TEAMS:
Southland: 1. Jamie Mackintosh (capt), 2. Talemaitoga Taupati, 3. Nick Barrett, 4. Josh Bekhuis, 5. Michael Fatialofa, 6. Hoani MacDonald, 7. Alex Taylor, 8. Scott McKee, 9. Jimmy Cowan, 10. Robbie Robinson, 11. Tim Cornforth, 12. Cardiff Vaega, 13. Nathan Hohaia, 14. Kade Poki, 15. Marty McKenzie.

Reserves: 16. Jason Rutledge, 17. Tukiterangi Raimona, 18. Ben Nally, 19. Dion Bates, 20. Nemia Kenatale, 21. Mark Wells, 22. Junior Ngaluafe.

Otago: 1. Scott Manson, 2. Liam Coltman, 3. Tama Tuirirangi, 4. Tom Franklin, 5. Rob Verbakel, 6. TJ Ioane, 7. Lee Allen, 8. Paul Grant (capt), 9. Fumiaki Tanaka, 10. Hayden Parker, 11. Buxton Popoali'i, 12. Glenn Dickson, 13. Jayden Spence, 14. Marshall Suckling, 15. Tony Ensor.

Reserves: 16. Shota Horie, 17. Aki Seiuli, 18. Adam Hill, 19. Gareth Evans, 20. Brad Weber, 21. Peter Breen, 22. Michael Collins.

REFEREE: Bryce Lawrence

 FORM:
Southland:
Round 1: lost to Counties 9-30 (a)
Round 2: lost to Wellington 8-40 (a)

Otago:
Round 1: beat Northland 46-34 (h)
Round 2: lost to Bay of Plenty 19-31 (a)

This from ITMCUP.co.nz
 WE THINK: Even though this match is Southland's first home game, Otago should go in as favourite after two solid showings in the opening rounds. Otago may be rebuilding, but there is good material available for Brown to work with. Southland simply hasn't shown enough on attack to inspire confidence so far, and it would take a greatly improved home performance to upset the form book. Otago should head back up SH1 happy after another win on Thursday night.
Pete disagrees
Otago are without their ABs Ben Smith, Tamati Ellison, Adam Thomson.
I was sad to see the Stags get relegated last year. They were a tough team.
I've been watching the betting. Initially Otago were favs....just,... at 9/10.
However all bookies now make Stags favs...also just,... at 10/11
I think the bookies are right about this, or they have had alot of money on stags.
Stags at home may be a different proposition. I hope they still have pride.
I like the regulars  in the forwards, Jamie, Josh, Rutledge. Then you've got Cowan, robinson and Poki in the backs. They say Vaega is a quality player also.
I'm going with Stags to end their run of losses and start to challenge for #1 spot.
Stags by 12.

Its half time. Stags have 70% possession and field position. They have had 2 tries disallowed. Legitimately as they were held up. Yet Otago were 9-0 up until last 10 mins of half.
Finally Stags score and HT is 9-7.
Hard to say if Stags can win this.....they have just had the worst luck and all games need a little luck.
Rain starting to come down which will hamper Stags' ability to move the ball.

Final result 10-15 to Otago who simply showed up and kicked their penalties.
Stags deserved to win this but even a hint of lady luck abandoned them.

Taranaki v Hawke’s Bay (RS)

Taranaki Barrett was his exceptional self during that 49-40 victory against Tasman- contributing 29 points via a try, three conversions and six penalties. He will be sorely missed.

Some good news for the 'Naki though is the return of captain Craig Clarke, who has been passed fit. Clarke's return from a grade two medial knee injury has come about sooner than expected after fears he would miss up to six weeks following the Chiefs' successful Super Rugby final.
Gone from the starting XV are former All Black Jarrad Hoeata, fellow flanker Chris Walker, lock James Broadhurst, halfback Jamison Gibson-Park, wing Frazier Climo and Barrett.

Hoeata has made way for Kane Barrett, Walker is replaced by Scott Waldrom, Gibson-Park is out of the 22 altogether after the inclusion of debutant Chris Smylie and Brett Goodin is on the bench. Climo suffered a high ankle sprain and is replaced by Jackson Ormond, while Broadhurst shifts to the bench for Clarke.

James Marshall, a new signing from Tasman, will fill in for Barrett at 10.

Hawke's Bay's hopes took a blow when Zac Guildford was ruled out of the match following a hamstring strain he suffered against Counties-Manukau, but apart from a shuffle in the back three Hawke's Bay has run with the same XV that started that match.

FORM:
Taranaki:
Round 1: beat Bay of Plenty 37-22 (a)
Round 2: beat Tasman 49-40 (h, RS)

Hawke's Bay:
Round 1: lost to Auckland 29-36 (h)
Round 2: lost to Wellington 15-30 (a)
Round 3: beat Counties-Manukau 37-30 (h)

The teams:

Taranaki: 15 Kurt Baker, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Willie Rickards, 12 Jayden Hayward, 11 Jackson Ormond, 10 James Marshall, 9 Chris Smylie, 8 Blade Thomson, 7 Scott Waldrom, 6 Kane Barrett, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Michael Bent, 2 Laurence Corlett, 1 Chris King.
Replacements: 16 Timo Tutavaha, 17 Sione Lea, 18 James Broadhurst, 19 Jarrad Hoeata, 20 Chris Walker, 21 Brett Goodin, 22 Jack Cameron.

Hawke's Bay: 1. Adrian Barone, 2. Hika Elliot, 3. Ben Tameifuna, 4. Ross Kennedy, 5. Johan Schoonbee, 6. Adam Bradey, 7. Karl Lowe, 8. Mike Coman (capt), 9. Chris Eaton, 10. Daniel Waenga, 11. Nick McLennan, 12. Andrew Horrell, 13. Tua Saseve, 14. Tino Nemani, 15. Gillies Kaka.

Reserves: 16. Ash Dixon, 17. Brendon Edmonds, 18. Maselino Paulino, 19. Trent Boswell-Wakefield, 20. Isaac Paewai, 21. Ihaia West, 22. Marvin Karawana.


This is a tough call.
Barrett out for Naki and Zac Guildford out for Bay cancel each other out to a degree. I'm a big Guildford fan.
Checked the weather and it is slated to rain with heavy winds.  This may not be a classic and may come down to whichever team slots over their penalties.
Naki for me by 1, which gives me an option for a Bay win by 4 in Superbru. Not confidant at all.

Game over. Final score 22-6 to Taranaki.
However the result was in the balance right up to the last 15 mins when score was 8-6. Then Naki score and from there HB made some terrible decisions which did not allow them back into the game.


Counties v Bay of Plenty

The teams:
Counties Manukau: 15 Sherwin Stowers, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Rey Lee-Lo, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Tony Pulu, 10 Baden Kerr, 9 August Pulu, 8 Fritz Lee, 7 Mark Selwyn, 6 Adam Cathcart, 5 Daniel Adongo, 4 Ronald Raaymakers, 3 Matt Talaese, 2 Mahonri Schwalger/Suliasi Taufalele, 1 Simon Lemalu.
Replacements: 16 Suliasi Taufalele/Mark Price, 17 Maka Tatafu, 18 Jimmy Tupou, 19 Maama Vaipulu, 20 David Bason, 21 Kane Hancy, 22 Ray Laulala.
Bay of Plenty: 15 Kenny Lynn, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Mafi Kefu, 12 Phil Burleigh, 11 Jack Wilson, 10 Nick McCashin, 9 Lewis Hancock, 8 Carl Axtens, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Tanerau Latimer (capt), 5 Keepa Mewett, 4 Culum Retallick, 3 Mike Kainga, 2 Dan Perrin, 1 Tristan Moran.
Replacements: 16 Nathan Harris, 17 Josh Hohneck, 18 Dan Goodwin, 19 Jesse Acton, 20 Josh Hall, 21 Simon Rolleston, 22 Lance MacDonald.

Another crossover game. One only has to look at the quality of the Bay team to not have to look any further. However, they have hardly set the world on fire. Their forwards did great against Otago last time, but one only has to look at how average Otago are after last night's game.

FORM:
Counties-Manukau: 
Round 1: beat Southland 30-9 (h)
Round 2: lost to Hawke’s Bay 30-37 (a)
Round 3: beat North Harbour 27-15 (a)
Bay of Plenty: 
Round 1: lost to Taranaki 22-37 (h)
Round 2: beat Otago 31-19 (h)

Counties at home will be difficult. Tana has done a great job with this team. They play well together and are motivated.
But the weather looks good tonight so I am hoping the Steamers will open up this game and play to their strengths, namely backs and loose forwards. If they get sloppy the steelers will be all over them in the breakdown.
Bay by 5.

Game over.
Well I missed the first half and when I woke to 2nd half game was already 37-13 to counties.
Yet stats were all in favor of BOP. Hard to believe that a team comprising so many S15 contracted players could be such a pushover. If I were a S15 coach I'd be looking at games such as this when I offer lucrative contracts.
Final score Counties 47-13

Auckland v Waikato4/5 fav

Auckland head coach Wayne Pivac has made just two changes to his side for Saturday's ITM Cup clash with Waikato at Eden Park.

Lock Liaki Moli returns from injury to replace Andrew Van der Heijden who is nursing a sore shoulder, while Sean Polwart has overcome an ankle sprain to resume duties at openside flanker in place of Nepia Fox-Matamua.

For the fourth consecutive match, Auckland's young and exciting backline remains unchanged.

In the only change to the reserves bench, outside back Dave Thomas comes in for Lolagi Visinia.
Pivac said he was expecting a "huge turnaround in performance" from Waikato following their loss to Northland last week.

"I didn't think they played badly against Northland but certainly they'll be looking to improve in a number of areas," Pivac said.
"I think you'll find their forwards will be very hungry, aggressive and very challenging for us.

"Certainly we learnt from Canterbury that top teams coming off a loss respond and we'd like to think we're in that category, that we lifted our performance against Manawatu so we expect a big performance from Waikato."

FORM:
Auckland:
Round 1: beat Hawke's Bay 36-29 (a)
Round 2: lost to Canterbury 11-33 (a)
Round 3: beat Manawatu 59-16 (h)
Waikato:
Round 1: beat North Harbour 42-22 (a)
Round 2: lost to Northland 27-29 (h)



The teams:
Auckland: 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Ben Lam, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Hadleigh Parkes (c), 11 George Moala, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Sean Polwart, 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Liaki Moli, 4 Sean Brookman, 3 Ofa Tu'ungafasi, 2 Tom McCartney, 1 Pauliasi Manu. Replacements: 16 Nathan Vella, 17 Angus Ta'avao, 18 Nathan Hughes, 19 Joe Edwards, 20 Auvasa Faleali'i, 21 Simon Hickey, 22 Dave Thomas.

Waikato...no team news yet anywhere.
Found it here on Waikato website


1.    Toby Smith (Hamilton Old Boys)
2.    Marcel Cummings-Toone (University)
3.    Ben May (Te Awamutu Sports)
4.    Chris Middleton (Te Awamutu Sports)
5.    Romana Graham (Hautapu)
6.    Matt Vant Leven (Fraser Tech)
7.    Zak Hohneck (Otorohanga)
8.    Alex Bradley [captain] (Morrinsville Sports)
9.    Brendon Leonard (Morrinsville Sports)
10.  Piers Francis (Hamilton Marist)
11.  Tim Mikkelson (University)
12.  Joe Perawiti (Otorohanga)
13.  Jackson Willison (Otorohanga)
14.  Declan O’Donnell (Melville)
15.  Trent Renata (University)

But I don't have to look further than Auckland
At the beginning of the season waikato were priced at 4/1 to win championship and auckland at 7/1
waikato are now 5/1 and Auckland 6/1
For this game bookies have Waikato as favs which is slightly unusual for 2 teams very close to each other in ability usually they would mark home side as slight favourite.
At home I think Auckland will win by 5.
Half time and Auckland lead 18-12 and they deserve it.
Waikato have the wind at their backs in 2nd half so will this be a big enough lead?
Final score Auckland win 32-22 and looked good




Canterbury 1/2 fav vs Wellington

Canterbury: 1. Joe Moody, 2. Ben Funnell, 3. Nepo Laulala, 4.Luke Katene, 5. Dominic Bird, 6. George Whitelock (capt), 7. Matt Todd, 8. Nasi Manu, 9. Willi Heinz, 10. Tyler Bleyendaal, 11. Johnny McNicholl, 12. Ryan Crotty, 13. Adam Whitelock, 14. Patrick Osborne, 15. Tom Taylor.

Reserves: 16. Corey Flynn, 17. Paea Fa'anunu, 18. Joel Everson, 19. Luke Whitelock, 20. Andy Ellis, 21. Robbie Fruean, 22. Telusa Veainu.

Wellington: 1. Solomon Sakalia, 2. Dane Coles, 3. Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen, 4. Jeremy Thrush (capt), 5. Mark Reddish, 6. Lua Lokotui, 7. Scott Fuglistaller, 8. Ardie Savea, 9. Frae Wilson, 10. Tim Bateman, 11. Matt Proctor, 12. Shaun Treeby, 13. Charlie Ngatai, 14. Alipate Leiua, 15. Jason Woodward.

Reserves: 16. Motu Matu'u, 17. Eric Sione, 18. Whetu Henry, 19. Ross Filipo, 20. Kayne Hammington, 21. Genesis Mamea, 22. Ope Peleseuma.
 

 FORM:
Canterbury:
Round 1: lost to Tasman 22-25 (a)
Round 2: beat Auckland 33-11 (h)
Round 3: beat North Harbour 36-3 (h)

Wellington:
Round 1: beat Manawatu 30-11 (a)
Round 2: beat Hawke's Bay 30-15 (h)
Round 3: beat Southland 40-8 (h)

I'm a bit stumped about Ellis and Fruean being on the reserves bench for such an important game. 

but I've been impressed with the work rate of the canterbury forwards. they are always right there at every ruck and in numbers. Wellington have some bruisers in the forwards and good backs, but I think motivation will play a big part.

So, it is canterbury by 5 for me with the chance of a draw in Superbru as I would be within 5 points.

Game over Cantab 20-12 Wellington. I missed 2nd half due to illness, but cantab looked good in forwards as usuual.

Manawatu vs Tasman

FORM:
Manawatu:
Round 1: lost to Wellington 11-30 (h)
Round 2: lost to Auckland 16-59 (a)
Round 3: beat Northland 33-20 (a)

Tasman:
Round 1: beat Canterbury 25-22 (h)
Round 2: lost to Taranaki 40-49 (a, RS)


Tasman did as much as a team could in a Ranfurly Shield challenge without actually winning the Log, giving Taranaki an enormous fright. They went score-for-score with the holders before eventually falling nine points short, and one bonus point hardly seemed a fair reward for an outstanding effort. They made the Taranaki defence look ordinary on several occasions, scored some excellent tries and showed that they're a force to be reckoned with in the Championship section.
The tasman side has been radically changed since that game

I agree with the ITM currie cup preview...WE THINK: Although Tasman has made a fine start to the season and has already beaten one of the Premiership guns and pushed Taranaki to the limit, those two matches may have taken a toll. Before Wednesday few people would have thought much before picking Tasman to win this one, but then the Turbos suddenly looked like the team of the last couple of years. We're going to call it for Manawatu; they haven't had the emotional draining of a huge Shield match and they have found some convincing form. Manawatu could actually win this one quite comfortably. I think by 10

Northland vs North Harbour

FORM:
Northland:
Round 1: lost to Otago 34-46 (a)
Round 2: beat Waikato 29-27 (a)
Round 3: lost to Manawatu 20-33 (h)

North Harbour:
Round 1: lost to Waikato 22-42 (h)
Round 2: lost to Canterbury 3-36 (a)
Round 3: lost to Counties-Manukau 15-27 (h)

Good preview by itm cup website but I'll  disagree 

WE THINK: On midweek showings, you'd probably pick both teams to lose this one. If you had to ask yourself which one has the greater potential for improvement, you'd probably say Northland -even if that's on the strength of one outing. We're going to run with that, since Northland cannot possibly be that bad twice in a row and they do have potential game-breakers. It may not be pretty, but the home side should get the points.

One has to wonder how a team like Harbour with a good front row and several excellent backs look so pitifull. If the rain and winds hold off AND if Harbour have faith in their backs then they should win easily....by 10

 
TEAMS:
Northland: 1. Ross Wright, 2. David Hall, 3. Peni Kaufusi, 4. Jack Whetton, 5. Bryce Williams (capt), 6. William Whetton, 7. Dan Pryor, 8. Cam Goodhue, 9. Rhyan Caine, 10. Ash Moeke, 11. Fa'atoina Autagavaia, 12. Derek Carpenter, 13. Rene Ranger, 14. Tau Fa'asisila, 15. Orene Ai'i.

Reserves: 16. Tone Kopelani, 17. Scott Vessey, 18. Hale T-Pole, 19. Jack Ram, 20. Samisoni Fisilau, 21. Eddie Paea, 22. Mateo Malupo.


North Harbour: 1. Salesi Manu, 2. James Parsons (capt), 3. Ben Afeaki, 4. Chris Smith, 5. Filo Paulo, 6. Sam Hayes-Stevenson, 7. Irwin Finau, 8. Jim Tuivaiti, 9. Brenton Helleur, 10. James Semple, 11. Nafi Tuitavake, 12. Francis Saili, 13. Cory Aporo, 14. Rudi Wulf, 15. Luke Devcich.

Reserves: 16. Manu Leiataua, 17. Alex Woonton, 18. Api Ratuniyarawa, 19. Malakai Ravulo, 20. Bryn Hall, 21. Pita Ahki, 22. David Raikuna.

 

 

 




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