All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has made five alterations to his starting line-up that beat Australia for their clash with Argentina in Wellington.
There are returns to the New Zealand jersey for Julian Savea, Conrad Smith, Victor Vito, Brodie Retallick and Tony Woodcock this weekend.
Savea replaces Hosea Gear on the left wing while Smith is in for Sonny Bill Williams, Vito for Liam Messam on the flank, Retallick for Sam Whitelock and finally Woodcock comes in for Wyatt Crockett.
The off-field talking point of this match is Graham Henry’s involvement with the Argentinian side. Equipped with knowledge of the All Blacks strengths and weakness and an understanding of how Hansen will coach the team, his assistance is going to prove vital. If he can get the visitors attacking while maintaining their dogged defence then this will be closer than many expect.
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Victor Vito, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Liam Messam, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Ben Smith.
Argentina: 15 Martin Rodriguez, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Juan Martin Hernandez, 9 Nicolas Vergallo, 8 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (c), 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Julio Farias Cabello, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Eusebio Guinazu, 1 Rodrigo Roncero.
Weather looks like being good at Wellington on Sat so I expect ABs to play their usual open running game.
They are on fire. Even the replacements are genuine first teamers. I am a huge fan of Cruden. He plays a different style than carter and brings another attacking dimension to the game. Give Cruden an inch of a gap and he'll take a mile and then off load to a support player. He is a great fly half IMO.
Savea will burn them all after swatting off any attempted tackles.. The reserve bench(except Weepu) even looks good.
I really don't need to say more. I think the bookies have NZ at -26pts which is extremely generous.
They just beat Aussie 22-0.
They demolished Ireland 60-0. Argentina are no Ireland.
The fact that the Boks have not managed to put the hurt on Argentina is not so much that the Argies are good, but that the tactics employed by Meyer is Northern hemisphere style, and there is always the chance you might lose if you play this way. If PDV were still coach, the SA supporters would already have hung, drawn and quartered him for this sort of result.
I reckon All Blacks by 52....maybe more. After the first 5 tries the Argies will have run out of juice.
Australia 8/11 fav vs South Africa
It is almost 11 months to the day since the
Wallabies defeated the Springboks in that controversial Rugby World Cup
quarter-final in Wellington.
That isn't a cue for out-of-date comments people, although the
term out-of-date has arisen of late as the two sides look to have
backtracked from 2011.
Many would have expected that since the RWC clash, both nations might have improved and be battling New Zealand for the summit of the IRB Rankings. Instead, we have a Wallabies coach reportedly clinging to his job by his fingernails and a Bok boss employing an antiquated game-plan.
The impressive All Blacks, meanwhile, currently enjoy a 6.38 rating points advantage - their record margin being 9.41 way back in the June of 2007. Meyer's charges are trailing in third but let's be honest for a second, first and fourth spot in the world list by December is a much of a muchness.
Consequently, the carrot of moving to within one spot of the All Blacks in the rankings will not have been given a second thought by South Africa as Jean de Villiers looks to lift his outfit following their showing in Mendoza, where their bulldozing tactic was easily absorbed by Argentina.
We do not expect a drastic change in the somewhat limited kick and charge plan from the Boks, but if it was going to succeed then against the Wallabies is when it possibly would.
Factor in that there is a fresh and untried winger wearing jersey number fourteen in the shape of Dom Shipperley - while Reds team-mate Digby Ioane has shown over the years that he can be rattled and is prone to more than one fumble per game - and South Africa will continue to go the airborne and also direct route with the question being: can Australia do what the Pumas did so brilliantly at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas a few weekends ago?
The general consensus is the hosts may not be suited to going toe-to-toe with their visitors, and while their recent four-game winning streak over South Africa is admirable, a lot has changed since in their starting XV since the 11-9 result at Wellington Regional Stadium.
A lack of Pat McCabe takes away their own direct option when showy attacks aren't on - an attribute Berrick Barnes simply does not possess - while the absence of James O'Connor, Stephen Moore, David Pocock, Stephen Moore, James Horwill and Drew Mitchell coinciding with form dips from Kurtley Beale, Will Genia and Quade Cooper leaves them struggling. Due to those issues, Deans now selects a different back-line for the third fixture in a row.
It seems like a mid-term telling off for the Wallabies but they are not alone in upsetting their masses as the Springboks, who frequently talk about having a Plan B, desperately need to prove they are more than what they have shown in their last three international outings.
Two draws and a win has not gone down well in the Republic as they persist with a selection that smacks more of structure than allowing flair and inhibition to flow.
One positive to come from their last showing is the inclusion of Johan Goosen, albeit on the bench. But judging by the recent fate of Pat Lambie, whether or not we see him make it onto the field is another matter entirely. If we do, maybe this 'Plan B' will have legs to stand.
Ones to watch:
For Australia: At 36 years old, Radike Samo gets a run at number eight ahead of Scott Higginbotham. The demotion of the latter player to bench duty was something of a surprise as maybe Dave Dennis could have been the man warming the pine, with Higginbotham switching to blindside. However, Deans has gone for a different route as he names a back-row that lacks in Test experience. Michael Hooper will, as usual, give his all while further forward it is unfortunate that Stephen Moore misses out on becoming the most-capped Wallaby hooker of all time due to a hamstring injury. That feat will come soon enough.
For South Africa: Getting the intelligent rugby brain of Ruan Pienaar onto the field is a great move from visiting head coach Heyneke Meyer as his form for Ulster over the past year or so has been exceptional. One hopes to see him alongside Johan Goosen at some stage, which would be a proud moment for Grey College in Bloemfontein. Furthermore, if Frans Steyn is still on the field it would be a 9-10-12 combination. It has seemed like the Boks' game-plan has muzzled the enterprising talent that is Francois Hougaard, so it will be interesting to see if he flourishes out on the left wing ahead of a benched Lwazi Mvovo.
Head-to-head: Although he is our one-to-watch for Australia, Radike Samo going up against a Springbok number eight who surely cannot be fit enough for international rugby is going to be interesting. Western Province coach Allister Coetzee said after Duane Vermeulen's Currie Cup comeback against Griquas: "Duane ended up playing an extra ten minutes than we'd initially planned. He wasn't quite at his best, but it's understandable. I would say he needs at least three or so matches before he'll be back at his best Currie Cup/Super Rugby standard." One game later, here he is in Perth. It's a big ask of Vermeulen on Saturday.
Recent results:
2011: Australia won 11-9, Wellington
2011: Australia won 14-9, Durban
2011: Australia won 39-20, Sydney
2010: Australia won 41-39, Bloemfontein
2010: South Africa won 44-31, Pretoria
2010: Australia won 30-13, Brisbane
2009: Australia won 21-6, Brisbane
2009: South Africa won 32-25, Perth
2009: South Africa won 29-17, Cape Town
2008: South Africa won 53-8, Johannesburg
Prediction: Australia have a 62 per cent winning record over South Africa on home soil, but that dips to 42 per cent in Perth. I just feel that the Springboks' tough game-plan will work against the Wallabies and they will end their four-game rot. Let's say... South Africa by 6!
The teams:
Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Dominic Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia (c), 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga'a, 17 James Slipper, 18 Scott Higginbotham, 19 Liam Gill, 20 Nick Phipps, 21 Mike Harris, 22 Anthony Fainga'a.
South Africa: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Pat Cilliers, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Francois Louw, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Pat Lambie, 22 Lwazi Mvovo.
Date: Saturday, September 8
Venue: Patersons Stadium, Perth
Kick-off: 18.35 (10.35 GMT)
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Petes prediction.
This is a tough one.
Weather will be good so pitch firm and I'm hoping Aussies will throw the ball around.
On their day the Aussie backs will run circles around the pedantic style of Boks.
Boks will come out playing Northern hemisphere style conservative rugby. Run into opposition and retain possession.
Bookies have Aus as favs.
I'm going with the bookies simply because Aus are at home. I think this is worth 5 points.
I think Aus by 3
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