On Saturday morning 8th September, 2012, Heyneke Meyer sits in his Perth hotel room pondering the upcoming Rugby Championship match against Australia. He makes the following notes in his personal diary:
Dear Rugby gods,
Please consider my petition. If it be your will, would you encourage the Wallabies to play in this particular fashion, according to this list of rules?
1. Try to out-kick us from their back three and in midfield.
2. Kick when in attack instead of using their best runners with the ball.
3. On that point, only give Digby Ioane the ball one or twice in the first 20minutes.
4. Play a ‘tight’ game that aims to keep the game close initially.
Thank you for hearing my plea.
What’s astonishing about all of these requests – South African fans would agree, they are four things that you’d ask the Wallabies to do if you could – is that the Wallabies played entirely into the Boks’ hands for the entirety of the match.
They seemed happy to attempt kicking further than their Boks counter-parts, weren’t willing to run it back from deep, didn’t get Ioane involved in any meaningful way and were happy to mostly run through one pass from the ruck.
And the Wallabies won!
That’s the remarkable part: the men in gold effectively played away from most of their strengths and won a Test match against a side playing to their own. This goes some way to prove that they do have the requisite passion and desire to perform for their country, after two listless performances against the All Blacks.
The Wallabies certainly did put a lot of effort into their defence, when the ball is near pay dirt most importantly, but they need to work on this pressure in the midfield. If the defence would stiffen across and outside the 22m line, potential turnovers, errors or penalties from the opposition would result in less clearing kicks and more attacking chances.
Holding another Rugby Championship team to a single try is still something these 22 can hang their hats on. Not an easy feat.
That single try confirmed that the Wallabies must become a wall further from their line. The South Africans won a kick chase and had clear ball near the Australian 22m line. From there the Wallabies defence was all over the shop – until the ball was right on the try line. At that point the line of Gold stiffened and it took a very concerted effort from the Boks to get it over the line.
Further study of the Wallabies defence shows they actually missed more tackles than their counter-parts, with a total of 19. They drop off a runner once every 54 seconds of defence; or one-in-five tackle attempts. South Africa only missed 14 tackles.
Adam Ashley-Cooper repeatedly bails the side out on defence. He did so against New Zealand a number of times and in Perth he made a super-human tackle of two attackers at once. He saved an almost certain try scoring opportunity.
Tim Horan wrote an article earlier in the week about how a Test match can be swung on a moment of greatness. The Ashley-Cooper tackle was that moment for the Wallabies this weekend. Make no mistake; this match was that close to a different result.
Ashley-Cooper finally got to play a test at outside centre again, I think is his best position. I hope he gets to stay there for the rest of the year.
He cops a lot of flak, but I think he is exactly the kind of glue player every good side needs. His effort won’t ever be found wanting; chasing kicks and restarts like a demon and making all of his tackles. He is the well rounded version of what Robbie Deans was hoping Rob Horne could become, but hasn’t.
That Ashley-Cooper knows how to run smart attacking lines, almost always gets over the gain line and has a good fend is a bonus.
The utility value that Ashley-Cooper brings is quite remarkable at this level of rugby. I wrote during the live blog, after a great late clearing kick (his first kick of the game from memory), that he was actually a better fullback than Kurtley Beale right now. I haven’t changed my mind since then. Leave him alone at centre for now though.
We do need to give Beale some time to get fit and sort out his head. I would advocate giving Bernard Foley or Luke Morahan a chance back there.
Coming into this match, the Springboks averaged a kick from hand every 35 seconds in 2012. The Wallabies averaged a tactical kick every 49 seconds. During this game both sides drastically lowered those figures.
The Wallabies kicked 42 times (every 23 seconds in possession) and the Springboks kicked it on ‘only’ 38 occasions (every 27 seconds). I’m not sure why, because the Wallabies only enjoyed 36% territory for the match employing this tactic. This indicated they weren’t able to find the free space or kick as far as the Boks, but continued to give away the ball anyway.
Why keep doing something that doesn’t work?
The Wallabies kicked from hand once for every two rucks they formed. I repeat: The Wallabies had 87 rucks/mauls and kicked it away 42 times in the same game.
That is fairly poor from a national team. This wasn’t played in ugly weather; conditions were perfect in Perth.
Ashley-Cooper and Deans both said at the half that they needed to stop kicking the ball away and take it down the field in hand more often. The second half saw little real change.
Kicking this often, especially when it isn’t part of the plan (let’s believe Deans here and ignore the evidence), is a symptom of not trusting team mates.
One of the foundations of rugby is support. That means being available for a pass and being available to help retain possession. The Wallabies are so fractured at this point that they don’t believe they will receive enough support when they run.
Berrick Barnes was the worst perpetrator, because he not only returned kicks with kicks, he was also guilty of kicking the ball away in attacking areas. He is surely just keeping the jersey warm until a better option presents itself.
If he is able to stay fit, Ben Tapuai is eventually the man to eventually play inside centre. For the Reds he has consistently been unable to stay on the field. Hopefully that trend can be arrested. When he played for the Wallabies against Canada last year he seemed to be exactly what our backline needed. He straightened the attack, was explosive and showed offloading ability.
If Tim Horan is indeed our greatest ever inside centre – as most people agree – then Tapuai fits the mould better than Barnes. An inside centre needs to be strong and able to pass competently, but doesn’t necessary have to carry the playmaker tag.
As I said at the top, South Africa had everything go their way to win this match. Why didn’t they?
Meyer prevented them from winning by not delivering the killer blow until it was too late.
In the middle of the second half, the Wallabies were almost out on their feet. I thought it was time for Johan Goosen and Patrick Lambie to enter the game if the Boks wanted to finish the Wallabies off.
Meyer didn’t pull the trigger until Ben Alexander had scored in the 69th minute. Too late.
Once the Wallabies got in front, they were able to repel the fresh green reinforcements just long enough to hold on.
Between them, Goosen and Lambie made 39 running metres from 19 minutes of game time. Contrast that to Morne Steyn and Zane Kirchner who produced 40m across the turf in 145 minutes on the field. That is why South Africa lost this match.
It wasn’t just their own running metres that improved the side either. As soon as Goosen went on his first gallop, Jean de Villiers and Francois Steyn had more room to operate because of the inside threat.
Meyer needs to start Lambie at the back in their next match and bring Goosen on much sooner. That is only if F. Steyn or Goosen are considered too unreliable off the tee to jolt Morne from the starting 15.
(Statistics from www.ruckingoodstats.com and www.rugbystats.com.au )
All Blacks chasing record test winning streak
irb.com and James Mortimer - (14/09/2012) - 
25 Comments
25 Comments
An All Blacks win on Saturday would give
the country their 14th consecutive win since losing to Australia 25-20
in the Tri-Nations a year ago.
The All Blacks’ record number of consecutive wins was set between 1965 and 1970, when they achieved 17 straight wins.
Their longest unbeaten streak came between 1987 and 1990, when they put together a run of 23 games without a loss, tempered by a 19-19 draw with
Australia in July 1988.
New Zealand require just eight more points the break the 1,000 point barrier in The Investec Rugby Championship (including Tri-Nations) matches against South Africa.
Now unbeaten in 13 Tests, New Zealand have scored an average of 30 points in their last five fixtures, conceding on average just nine points.
Having gone through the Rugby World Cup and Steinlager Series against Ireland unbeaten, Australia remain the last team to beat New Zealand in any competition, having beaten them last year.
New Zealand’s last loss at home to the Springboks came in Hamilton in September 2009, when they were beaten 32-29.
That loss remains the last time the All Blacks lost at home and they have gone on to record 22 consecutive home victories since then.
In total, South Africa have beaten the All Blacks nine times at New Zealand venues. The Springboks have beaten the All Blacks in the city of Dunedin on just one occasion in nine attempts. That came in 2008, when they beat the home side 30-28 at Carisbrook.
New Zealand have an 84% win ratio in the city of Dunedin, losing just five Tests over a period of 80 years.
The Springboks' stubbornness in sticking to what they believe is a tried-and-tested formula - and by extension their selection policy - has been the greeted by widespread frustration not only in the Republic, but around the world as fans beg to see the Boks use some of the attacking talents at their disposal.
Earlier this week we ran a poll asking who you would pick at 10 and 15 for the Boks. Of the eight options provided, Meyer's preferred combination ranked... a distant seventh.
Less than four per cent of the fans who voted reckon that Morne Steyn and Zane Kirchner are the right men for the job. Overwhelmingly our readers feel that either Johan Goosen or Pat Lambie, or a combination of the two, should be South Africa's playmakers.
It's easy to criticise Steyn's lack of invention, but he is only doing what he is told. And to be fair to Meyer, if South Africa are going to persist with employing their current tactic (and I use the singular form intentionally, because it's abundantly clear there is no 'plan B') then Steyn IS the best choice.
And judging by some comments from the Bulls fly-half this week, the Boks have no intention of changing the approach that brought them their last Tri-Nations title back in 2009.
"We've won a Tri-Nations with the same game-plan and in 2007 we won the World Cup with these tactics. We have to stay with this strategy," he said.
Eh?
So, it worked against equally one-dimensional Argentina and England at a World Cup five years ago so it can't be wrong?
True, the hit-'em-hard-and-kick-it-high approach bore fruit in 2009 when Joe Rokocoko and Sitiveni Sivivatu, who were hopelessly out of form at the time, were found wanting under the high ball. But to simply expect the current crop of Kiwis to wilt under pressure in the same fashion is more than naive, it's just plain foolish.
Every defensive coach in world rugby has seen it all before and has had years and years to come up with the necessary solutions.
But the more we shout, the more the siege mentality in the Bok camp is entrenched. Meyer says he doesn't care that his team have been written off, that he's used to being criticised and has instead highlighted the fact that he is leading an inexperienced team in country where the Boks have not enjoyed much success.
Sure, you can't replace the players he's lost overnight, but surely that is all the more reason to build a new strategy around the next generation of talents at his disposal?
The furore over the Boks living in denial has gone a long way to overshadow the fact that the All Blacks were given an almighty scare by Argentina last week.
As much as that result is a reflection of just how good the Pumas are, if truth be told, the Kiwis weren't at their best and their error count was uncharacteristically high. Some calm heads from experienced players saw them home though as their approach to the game ultimately proved the same point we expect again this weekend: If you keep moving the ball, gaps will eventually open up. Compare that to the Boks' inability to put the Pumas away in both Cape Town and Mendoza.
While this will be South Africa's first visit to Forsyth Barr Stadium, the Springboks' last visit to the deep south and the now defunct 'House of Pain' (Carisbrook) in 2008 resulted in victory. But don't read too much into that, the Boks have won just three times in New Zealand in the professional era.
Some pundits have suggested that this game might be a crossroads for South Africa, arguing that if they get hammered, they'll be forced to rethink their strategy.
But there are too many class players in the visitors' side for this to turn into a massacre. If South Africa come anywhere near winning, the coaching staff will see it as vindication of their outdated thinking and we'll be back to square one. In that case, the real losers will be everyone who wants to see exciting rugby.
Players to watch:
For New Zealand: Officially, Piri Weepu has been handed back the number nine shirt because Aaron Smith was a naughty boy and staying out too late but it would not have been a huge surprise if the World Cup winner had been bumped up from the bench anyway. After a poor Super Rugby season, Mr Fixit has looked much better in a Black jersey (not least because he has lost 10kg) and was a steadying influence when the Kiwis needed calm heads in Wellington. With the hosts looking to play at a high tempo on a dry track, Weepu will be keen to show he can keep up with the pace and regain a regular starting berth. Axed from the team last week for simply not being good enough, Sam Whitelock returns with a point to prove - South Africa's line-out will provide a real test of his skills.
For South Africa: With a grand total of one Premiership game for Bath and 23 minutes against Australia under his belt, Francois Louw has been brought into the Bok starting XV with the specific task of beating Richie McCaw on the ground. No pressure, then. Whilst Flo's inclusion has been welcomed by many as a step in the right direction, the fact that it comes at the expense of Marcell Coetzee - South Africa's best player this year and their only forward with any pace - has only heaped even more pressure onto Louw's shoulders. How many Test tries would Bryan Habana have scored if he had been born in New Zealand? Despite being starved of opportunities to gallop in space, he always finds a way to get involved.
Head-to-head: Incredibly, there are just three players in the All Blacks starting team this weekend that were also in the run-on side when they last played the Springboks in Port Elizabeth last August. One of them, Israel Dagg, must be licking his lips at the prospect of being kicked at by Zane Kirchner. If the SA back three get it even slightly wrong, they'll be punished. The equation is simple: give Dagg, Jane and Savea ammunition and you'll get shot.
Previous results:
2011: South Africa won 18-5 at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
2011: New Zealand won 40-7 at Westpac Stadium, Wellington
2010: New Zealand won 29-22 at FNB Stadium, Johannesburg
2010: New Zealand won 31-17 at Westpac Stadium, Wellington
2010: New Zealand won 32-12 at Eden Park, Auckland
2009: South Africa won 32-29 at Rugby Park, Hamilton
2009: South Africa won 31-19 at Absa Stadium, Durban
2009: South Africa won 28-19 at Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein
2008: New Zealand won 19-0 at Newlands
2008: South Africa won 30-28 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
2008: New Zealand won 19-8 at Westpac Stadium, Wellington
2007: New Zealand won 33-6 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2007: New Zealand won 26-21 at Absa Stadium, Durban
2006: South Africa won 21-20 at Royal Bafokeng Stadium, Rustenburg
2006: New Zealand won 45-26 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Prediction: I honestly hope the Boks prove me wrong and provide us with a spectacle worth watching. But on current form, I can only see a home victory. Heyneke Meyer's walkie-talkie to take a beating and New Zealand to win by 14 points.
The teams:
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock
Replacements:16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
South Africa: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
Date: Saturday, September 15
Venue: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
Kick-off: 19:35 (08:35 BST, 07:35 GMT, 09:35 SAST)
Weather:Who cares? The stadium has a roof.
Referee: George Clancy (IRE)
Furthermore, the pre-tournament ringed home fixtures are still to cap what has already been a memorable and justified debut at the top table.
Next up is Australia who, despite being heavy favourites with the bookmakers, are set to face a gruelling evening at Skilled Park this Saturday.
If Australia do claim the win, they will have come through a right of passage against a pack Tatafu Polota-Nau praised as being 'jacklers'. Polota-Nau continued by rating the Argentinean forwards as being right up there, if not the strongest, group of eight in the 2012 Rugby Championship. It's a fair point as, if asked to name the competition's form XV, then Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and Rodrigo Roncero would go straight onto the list.
As has been the case over the years when planning out our then Tri-Nations previews, the 'Recent Results' section would be packed to the rafters. Not so this year as these two have met just four times in the last twelve years. Just three players remain from the last clash as Patricio Albacete, Nathan Sharpe and Juan Martin Hernandez go at it again. Those asking where old stager Roncero was, he did feature in RWC 2003 but didn't make that squad.
Roncero will, of course, be in attendance this weekend and is most definitely going out from Test rugby with a bang - credit to consultant Graham Henry for reportedly coaxing him back from his retirement call. With Marcos Ayerza patiently waiting his turn, the future is bright.
But what can we expect on Saturday? Blank out their most recent results for a second and going solely on form I'd have no qualms backing Argentina winning on Australian soil. Reasons for a so-called upset (they are 5/1) are that the Wallabies are expected to come off second best in the forward scrap - Lobbe and Roncero will hope to accelerate that process - while the last time Nick Phipps started a Test it was in a bruising defeat to Samoa. Much like Samoa on that day, Argentina arrive confident and face a line-up that is far from at its strongest. One wonders how much Australia they miss Sitaleki Timani and Will Genia.
Their scrum did hold up well last week and that is welcome encouragement for the Wallaby front-row and their coaches. But the Pumas arguably bring a more complete arsenal than the Boks of 2012, and with the Wallabies far from top form and the Argentines oozing confidence right now, we could see a 'shock'. How long before that word ceases to exist?
Ones to watch:
For Australia: If they haven't already, Argentina would be advised to watch a re-run of Samoa's victory over the Wallabies last July. That win uncovered a few home truths about some of the Wallabies, with a couple of players having rarely featured again since. Will Genia's replacement, Nick Phipps, was on the receiving end of a big tackle and he will no doubt be targeted by the Pumas. Watchers of New Zealand's 'The Crowd Goes Wild' might remember they did a 'Smashed 'em Bro' solely based on that game. Here it is. Argentina will look to show the spirit of the islanders this weekend and get amongst these Wallabies. If Phipps is going backwards, he might be in for one heck of an uncomfortable game.
For Argentina: Coach Santiago Phelan seems to have no qualms with changing personell even when the team is performing well. Martin Rodriguez has subsequently been benched for someone who copped the same treatment after the Newlands defeat, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino. The full-back returns this week and will be hungry to prove that he's the number one number 15 in South America. Amorosino is a smooth runner when given a chance but he definitely is a confidence player. If the Pumas get him firing - alongside wing duo Gonzalo Camacho and Horacio Agulla - Australia will have their hands full for 80 minutes.
Head-to-head: Two very different specimens clash on the openside at Skilled Park as the compact yet powerful Michael Hooper faces off with Juan Manuel Leguizamon. Hooper has filled the void left by David Pocock to good effect while Leguizamon is given another opportunity after an average half a game return to action in Wellington last week. Both with their own specific tools are going to be key to how this one pans out but there is just a sense that having Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and Julio Faras Cabello alongside him might see the ex-London Irish and now Lyon flanker come out on top. Another battle worth watching will be Adam Ashley-Cooper against Marcelo Bosch. Two complete footballers.
Recent results:
2003: Australia won 24-8 in Sydney
2002: Australia won 17-6 in Buenos Aires
2000: Australia won 32-25 in Canberra
2000: Australia won 53-6 in Brisbane
Prediction: Argentina couldn't ask for a better opportunity to win on Australian soil. While the hosts enter after beating SA, there is a sense they might come unstuck. The Pumas have the pack to better their rivals up front and if 'El Mago' pulls the strings, Argentina by 2!
The teams:
Australia: 15 Berrick Barnes, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe (capt), 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore/Saia Fainga'a, 17 James Slipper, 18 Scott Higginbotham, 19 Liam Gill, 20 Brett Sheehan, 21 Anthony Fainga'a, 22 Kurtley Beale.
Argentina: 15 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Juan Martin Hernandez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (capt), 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Julio Faras Cabello, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Eusebio Guinazu, 1 Rodrigo Roncero.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Juan Pablo Orlandi, 18 Leonardo Senatore, 19 Tomas Leonardi, 20 Nicolas Vergallo, 21 Martin Rodriguez, 22 Juan Imhoff.
Date: Saturday, 15 September
Venue: Skilled Park, Gold Coast
Kick-off: 20:00 (11:00 BST, 10:00 GMT)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
TMO: Matt Goddard (Australia)
Article writer from Planet rugby is off his rocker.
Absolutely no chance of argies winning for so many reasons.
So what that they've managed to score a couple of tries in the competition so far. I actually bet a mate that they wouldn't score any, but I didn't count on monsoon conditions in NZ and a BOK team playing similar style to Argies which will always be a 50/50 proposition.
The weather is scheduled to be perfect.
Aussies using backs to stretch Argies and tries to come equally from backs and forwards alike.
Aus by 32
  |
Their longest unbeaten streak came between 1987 and 1990, when they put together a run of 23 games without a loss, tempered by a 19-19 draw with
Australia in July 1988.
New Zealand require just eight more points the break the 1,000 point barrier in The Investec Rugby Championship (including Tri-Nations) matches against South Africa.
Now unbeaten in 13 Tests, New Zealand have scored an average of 30 points in their last five fixtures, conceding on average just nine points.
Having gone through the Rugby World Cup and Steinlager Series against Ireland unbeaten, Australia remain the last team to beat New Zealand in any competition, having beaten them last year.
New Zealand’s last loss at home to the Springboks came in Hamilton in September 2009, when they were beaten 32-29.
That loss remains the last time the All Blacks lost at home and they have gone on to record 22 consecutive home victories since then.
In total, South Africa have beaten the All Blacks nine times at New Zealand venues. The Springboks have beaten the All Blacks in the city of Dunedin on just one occasion in nine attempts. That came in 2008, when they beat the home side 30-28 at Carisbrook.
New Zealand have an 84% win ratio in the city of Dunedin, losing just five Tests over a period of 80 years.
New Zealand v South Africa
It's supposed to be the greatest rivalry
in rugby, but very few pundits are backing the Springboks to beat the
All Blacks in Dunedin on Saturday.
Most expect the hosts to show Heyneke Meyer and co. why 'total
rugby', when executed correctly, will always be superior to the
one-dimensional style to which the Boks insist on confining themselves.
The Springboks' stubbornness in sticking to what they believe is a tried-and-tested formula - and by extension their selection policy - has been the greeted by widespread frustration not only in the Republic, but around the world as fans beg to see the Boks use some of the attacking talents at their disposal.
Earlier this week we ran a poll asking who you would pick at 10 and 15 for the Boks. Of the eight options provided, Meyer's preferred combination ranked... a distant seventh.
Less than four per cent of the fans who voted reckon that Morne Steyn and Zane Kirchner are the right men for the job. Overwhelmingly our readers feel that either Johan Goosen or Pat Lambie, or a combination of the two, should be South Africa's playmakers.
It's easy to criticise Steyn's lack of invention, but he is only doing what he is told. And to be fair to Meyer, if South Africa are going to persist with employing their current tactic (and I use the singular form intentionally, because it's abundantly clear there is no 'plan B') then Steyn IS the best choice.
And judging by some comments from the Bulls fly-half this week, the Boks have no intention of changing the approach that brought them their last Tri-Nations title back in 2009.
"We've won a Tri-Nations with the same game-plan and in 2007 we won the World Cup with these tactics. We have to stay with this strategy," he said.
Eh?
So, it worked against equally one-dimensional Argentina and England at a World Cup five years ago so it can't be wrong?
True, the hit-'em-hard-and-kick-it-high approach bore fruit in 2009 when Joe Rokocoko and Sitiveni Sivivatu, who were hopelessly out of form at the time, were found wanting under the high ball. But to simply expect the current crop of Kiwis to wilt under pressure in the same fashion is more than naive, it's just plain foolish.
Every defensive coach in world rugby has seen it all before and has had years and years to come up with the necessary solutions.
But the more we shout, the more the siege mentality in the Bok camp is entrenched. Meyer says he doesn't care that his team have been written off, that he's used to being criticised and has instead highlighted the fact that he is leading an inexperienced team in country where the Boks have not enjoyed much success.
Sure, you can't replace the players he's lost overnight, but surely that is all the more reason to build a new strategy around the next generation of talents at his disposal?
The furore over the Boks living in denial has gone a long way to overshadow the fact that the All Blacks were given an almighty scare by Argentina last week.
As much as that result is a reflection of just how good the Pumas are, if truth be told, the Kiwis weren't at their best and their error count was uncharacteristically high. Some calm heads from experienced players saw them home though as their approach to the game ultimately proved the same point we expect again this weekend: If you keep moving the ball, gaps will eventually open up. Compare that to the Boks' inability to put the Pumas away in both Cape Town and Mendoza.
While this will be South Africa's first visit to Forsyth Barr Stadium, the Springboks' last visit to the deep south and the now defunct 'House of Pain' (Carisbrook) in 2008 resulted in victory. But don't read too much into that, the Boks have won just three times in New Zealand in the professional era.
Some pundits have suggested that this game might be a crossroads for South Africa, arguing that if they get hammered, they'll be forced to rethink their strategy.
But there are too many class players in the visitors' side for this to turn into a massacre. If South Africa come anywhere near winning, the coaching staff will see it as vindication of their outdated thinking and we'll be back to square one. In that case, the real losers will be everyone who wants to see exciting rugby.
Players to watch:
For New Zealand: Officially, Piri Weepu has been handed back the number nine shirt because Aaron Smith was a naughty boy and staying out too late but it would not have been a huge surprise if the World Cup winner had been bumped up from the bench anyway. After a poor Super Rugby season, Mr Fixit has looked much better in a Black jersey (not least because he has lost 10kg) and was a steadying influence when the Kiwis needed calm heads in Wellington. With the hosts looking to play at a high tempo on a dry track, Weepu will be keen to show he can keep up with the pace and regain a regular starting berth. Axed from the team last week for simply not being good enough, Sam Whitelock returns with a point to prove - South Africa's line-out will provide a real test of his skills.
For South Africa: With a grand total of one Premiership game for Bath and 23 minutes against Australia under his belt, Francois Louw has been brought into the Bok starting XV with the specific task of beating Richie McCaw on the ground. No pressure, then. Whilst Flo's inclusion has been welcomed by many as a step in the right direction, the fact that it comes at the expense of Marcell Coetzee - South Africa's best player this year and their only forward with any pace - has only heaped even more pressure onto Louw's shoulders. How many Test tries would Bryan Habana have scored if he had been born in New Zealand? Despite being starved of opportunities to gallop in space, he always finds a way to get involved.
Head-to-head: Incredibly, there are just three players in the All Blacks starting team this weekend that were also in the run-on side when they last played the Springboks in Port Elizabeth last August. One of them, Israel Dagg, must be licking his lips at the prospect of being kicked at by Zane Kirchner. If the SA back three get it even slightly wrong, they'll be punished. The equation is simple: give Dagg, Jane and Savea ammunition and you'll get shot.
Previous results:
2011: South Africa won 18-5 at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
2011: New Zealand won 40-7 at Westpac Stadium, Wellington
2010: New Zealand won 29-22 at FNB Stadium, Johannesburg
2010: New Zealand won 31-17 at Westpac Stadium, Wellington
2010: New Zealand won 32-12 at Eden Park, Auckland
2009: South Africa won 32-29 at Rugby Park, Hamilton
2009: South Africa won 31-19 at Absa Stadium, Durban
2009: South Africa won 28-19 at Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein
2008: New Zealand won 19-0 at Newlands
2008: South Africa won 30-28 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
2008: New Zealand won 19-8 at Westpac Stadium, Wellington
2007: New Zealand won 33-6 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2007: New Zealand won 26-21 at Absa Stadium, Durban
2006: South Africa won 21-20 at Royal Bafokeng Stadium, Rustenburg
2006: New Zealand won 45-26 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Prediction: I honestly hope the Boks prove me wrong and provide us with a spectacle worth watching. But on current form, I can only see a home victory. Heyneke Meyer's walkie-talkie to take a beating and New Zealand to win by 14 points.
The teams:
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock
Replacements:16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Beauden Barrett, 22 Tamati Ellison.
South Africa: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Marcell Coetzee, 20 Johan Goosen, 21 Juan de Jongh, 22 Pat Lambie.
Date: Saturday, September 15
Venue: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
Kick-off: 19:35 (08:35 BST, 07:35 GMT, 09:35 SAST)
Weather:Who cares? The stadium has a roof.
Referee: George Clancy (IRE)
The article writer from Planet Rugby is just about on the money.
Weather looks good so no excuses for shoddy passing.
I too will go for ABs by 14.
Australia v Argentina
Why weren't they involved sooner? That is
the general consensus about Argentina right now after a smooth arrival
to the Rugby Championship.
An opening night defeat was backed up by a draw against the Boks
in Mendoza before New Zealand were next to feel the full force of Puma
beef.
Furthermore, the pre-tournament ringed home fixtures are still to cap what has already been a memorable and justified debut at the top table.
Next up is Australia who, despite being heavy favourites with the bookmakers, are set to face a gruelling evening at Skilled Park this Saturday.
If Australia do claim the win, they will have come through a right of passage against a pack Tatafu Polota-Nau praised as being 'jacklers'. Polota-Nau continued by rating the Argentinean forwards as being right up there, if not the strongest, group of eight in the 2012 Rugby Championship. It's a fair point as, if asked to name the competition's form XV, then Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and Rodrigo Roncero would go straight onto the list.
As has been the case over the years when planning out our then Tri-Nations previews, the 'Recent Results' section would be packed to the rafters. Not so this year as these two have met just four times in the last twelve years. Just three players remain from the last clash as Patricio Albacete, Nathan Sharpe and Juan Martin Hernandez go at it again. Those asking where old stager Roncero was, he did feature in RWC 2003 but didn't make that squad.
Roncero will, of course, be in attendance this weekend and is most definitely going out from Test rugby with a bang - credit to consultant Graham Henry for reportedly coaxing him back from his retirement call. With Marcos Ayerza patiently waiting his turn, the future is bright.
But what can we expect on Saturday? Blank out their most recent results for a second and going solely on form I'd have no qualms backing Argentina winning on Australian soil. Reasons for a so-called upset (they are 5/1) are that the Wallabies are expected to come off second best in the forward scrap - Lobbe and Roncero will hope to accelerate that process - while the last time Nick Phipps started a Test it was in a bruising defeat to Samoa. Much like Samoa on that day, Argentina arrive confident and face a line-up that is far from at its strongest. One wonders how much Australia they miss Sitaleki Timani and Will Genia.
Their scrum did hold up well last week and that is welcome encouragement for the Wallaby front-row and their coaches. But the Pumas arguably bring a more complete arsenal than the Boks of 2012, and with the Wallabies far from top form and the Argentines oozing confidence right now, we could see a 'shock'. How long before that word ceases to exist?
Ones to watch:
For Australia: If they haven't already, Argentina would be advised to watch a re-run of Samoa's victory over the Wallabies last July. That win uncovered a few home truths about some of the Wallabies, with a couple of players having rarely featured again since. Will Genia's replacement, Nick Phipps, was on the receiving end of a big tackle and he will no doubt be targeted by the Pumas. Watchers of New Zealand's 'The Crowd Goes Wild' might remember they did a 'Smashed 'em Bro' solely based on that game. Here it is. Argentina will look to show the spirit of the islanders this weekend and get amongst these Wallabies. If Phipps is going backwards, he might be in for one heck of an uncomfortable game.
For Argentina: Coach Santiago Phelan seems to have no qualms with changing personell even when the team is performing well. Martin Rodriguez has subsequently been benched for someone who copped the same treatment after the Newlands defeat, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino. The full-back returns this week and will be hungry to prove that he's the number one number 15 in South America. Amorosino is a smooth runner when given a chance but he definitely is a confidence player. If the Pumas get him firing - alongside wing duo Gonzalo Camacho and Horacio Agulla - Australia will have their hands full for 80 minutes.
Head-to-head: Two very different specimens clash on the openside at Skilled Park as the compact yet powerful Michael Hooper faces off with Juan Manuel Leguizamon. Hooper has filled the void left by David Pocock to good effect while Leguizamon is given another opportunity after an average half a game return to action in Wellington last week. Both with their own specific tools are going to be key to how this one pans out but there is just a sense that having Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and Julio Faras Cabello alongside him might see the ex-London Irish and now Lyon flanker come out on top. Another battle worth watching will be Adam Ashley-Cooper against Marcelo Bosch. Two complete footballers.
Recent results:
2003: Australia won 24-8 in Sydney
2002: Australia won 17-6 in Buenos Aires
2000: Australia won 32-25 in Canberra
2000: Australia won 53-6 in Brisbane
Prediction: Argentina couldn't ask for a better opportunity to win on Australian soil. While the hosts enter after beating SA, there is a sense they might come unstuck. The Pumas have the pack to better their rivals up front and if 'El Mago' pulls the strings, Argentina by 2!
The teams:
Australia: 15 Berrick Barnes, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Radike Samo, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Nathan Sharpe (capt), 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore/Saia Fainga'a, 17 James Slipper, 18 Scott Higginbotham, 19 Liam Gill, 20 Brett Sheehan, 21 Anthony Fainga'a, 22 Kurtley Beale.
Argentina: 15 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Juan Martin Hernandez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (capt), 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Julio Faras Cabello, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Eusebio Guinazu, 1 Rodrigo Roncero.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Juan Pablo Orlandi, 18 Leonardo Senatore, 19 Tomas Leonardi, 20 Nicolas Vergallo, 21 Martin Rodriguez, 22 Juan Imhoff.
Date: Saturday, 15 September
Venue: Skilled Park, Gold Coast
Kick-off: 20:00 (11:00 BST, 10:00 GMT)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
TMO: Matt Goddard (Australia)
Article writer from Planet rugby is off his rocker.
Absolutely no chance of argies winning for so many reasons.
So what that they've managed to score a couple of tries in the competition so far. I actually bet a mate that they wouldn't score any, but I didn't count on monsoon conditions in NZ and a BOK team playing similar style to Argies which will always be a 50/50 proposition.
The weather is scheduled to be perfect.
Aussies using backs to stretch Argies and tries to come equally from backs and forwards alike.
Aus by 32
No comments:
Post a Comment