ITM Cup Semi Finals

Preview: Otago v Tasman

 Tasman goes into its first-ever semi with burrs under its saddle -two horrible performances, one last week against North Harbour and the other the last time these two teams met -to drive the side on. Otago has not played a final for seven years, which will be spur enough for a proud old union and its exciting young players.

VENUE & TIME: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, Friday October 19 @ 1935

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 6; Otago 5, Tasman 0, drawn 1.

LAST TIME: September 23, 2012 (Dunedin, round 6) -Otago 39-13 Tasman.

WALKING WOUNDED: Otago has one significant absentee and one significant returnee for this match; Tom Franklin, who has enjoyed a big year at lock, has been ruled out after a hamstring injury against Auckland and has been replaced by debutant Jackson Hemopo, while Adam Thomson has been released by the All Blacks and will take his place on the side of the scrum. Paul Grant (shoulder) and Tama Tuirirangi (knee) were not considered. The most obvious and potentially far-reaching losses for Tasman are Jordan Taufua (recalled by Canterbury in the wake of their own injury problems), Campbell Johnstone (calf) and Robbie Malneek (knee and ankle), all of whom have starred this year. The loose forwards and three-quarter line have been rejigged as a result, but apart from Mitchell Scott making his first appearance of the year on the bench, everyone in the 22 is a regular.

FORM:
Otago:
Round 6: beat Tasman 39-13 (h)
Round 7: lost to Hawke's Bay 15-21 (a)
Round 8: beat Manawatu 51-35 (a)
Round 9: lost to Wellington 22-49 (h)
Round 10: lost to Auckland 19-24 (h)

Tasman:
Round 6: lost to Otago 13-39 (a)
Round 7: lost to Waikato 19-20 (a)
Round 8: beat Bay of Plenty 17-3 (h)
Round 9: beat Counties-Manukau 28-19 (a)
Round 10: lost to North Harbour 10-42 (h)

Otago might not have beaten Auckland, but the Dark Blues turned in a much better performance than against Wellington. They stuck with the visitors all the way and the game was only determined by an intercept try (although that may not have been the case if the TMO hadn't ruled out a potential score by Gareth Anscombe of the flimsiest of grounds), but Otago did compete well and was able to dictate the pace at times against one of the competition's best sides.

Tasman, having put in two big performances against good sides, turned in a collective shocker against North Harbour and got thoroughly dusted. The Makos made a ton of errors (the turnover count was 26-7 against them), didn't play smart rugby and got rolled over by a Harbour pack that has not been bad all year. The backs never fired either, so any hopes of hosting this match were out the window long before halftime and the second 40 minutes seemed to stretch on forever.

WHO'S HOT: With the tight five having taken a few hits recently, pressure will be on lock Rob Verbakel to lead them around the paddock this week. He does all his core stuff well and makes an impact around the field, often hitting the ball up hard or hitting opponents back equally as hard. Having Thomson back will only add starch to what has been a decent Otago loose trio, as his power going forward and all-round ability would be welcomed in any team. He hasn't had a lot of rugby lately but should be able to get back into it quickly, which will serve his side well. The Otago backline has remained relatively unchanged for most of the season and every player in it has had good moments through the season. But if there's one guy who exemplifies what's good about Otago rugby, it's Glenn Dickson -steady, reliable, talented and a bloke who always plays to win. If Tasman wants to do things in this game, they'll need to shut him down.

Tasman has used a solid core of players through the year and they have all served the side well. Up front, Quentin MacDonald and Joe Wheeler often stand out for strong all-round performances; they're both talented ball-players in the open and hard workers in the tight. MacDonald is actually one of the more skilful forwards with ball in hand, never trying to do too much but often quick to recognise where the real possibilities are, while Wheeler is one of those blokes who will take the ball up into heavy traffic and give his team-mates a chance to regroup behind him. They've both given the team a lot this year. So has skipper Andrew Goodman; he may not be a regular try-scoring hero or the flashiest player but he is always sound, always steady and always doing his very best. His tough defence is one of the reasons why Tasman does not get cut open much these days, while his attacking skills and vision often create space and time for the dangerous players out wider.

WE THINK: If Tasman can't get motivated for this game, they're not going to survive for long -and if Otago aren't up for it, the same applies. Both teams have the ability to play fast, aggressive football although Otago makes a few less errors in its games and has not suffered a real wipe-out this year. The changes forced on both teams have put a couple more points on what we think Otago's final margin will be, but it always looked likely to be a tough home win anyway.

TEAMS:
Otago: 1. Aki Seiuli, 2. Sam Anderson-Heather, 3. Liam Coltman, 4. Jackson Hemopo, 5. Rob Verbakel, 6. Adam Thomson, 7. Lee Allen, 8. Gareth Evans, 9. Fumiaki Tanaka, 10. Hayden Parker, 11. Buxton Popoali'i, 12. Glenn Dickson (capt), 13. Jayden Spence, 14. Marshall Suckling, 15. Tony Ensor.

Reserves: 16. Shota Horie, 17. Jacob Ellison, 18. Adam Hill, 19. TJ Ioane, 20. Peter Breen, 21. Michael Collins, 22. Hugh Blake.


Tasman: 1. Tim Perry, 2. Quentin MacDonald, 3. Sam Prattley, 4. Filipo Levi, 5. Riki Hoeata, 6. Joe Wheeler, 7. Shane Christie, 8. Tevita Kolomatangi, 9. Jeremy Su'a, 10. Hayden Cripps, 11. James Lowe, 12. Andrew Goodman (capt), 13. Kieron Fonotia, 14. Peter Betham, 15. Tom Marshall.

Reserves: 16. Francis Smith, 17. Reuben Northover, 18. Vern Fredricks, 19. Gary Redmond, 20. Steve Alfeld, 21. Mitchell Scott, 22. Albert Nikoro.

Pete says...Good weather and little rain will allow the ball to be thrown around if either team takes the chance. At home Otago thrashed tasman by 26 points. Malneek out for Tasmman is a set back and return of AB Thompson, is indeed a blessing, although he does like to stay out wide alot.
Still it must be Otago by at least 12.
Game over and Os won by 5
This from TVNZ. 
Finally they do a decent commentary on their own national sport. the rest of the year they have sucked, and one wonders why the interest in the provincial cup is waning.
Premiership semi-finals
Canterbury v Taranaki, 4.35pm Saturday, Christchurch
Head to head: Canterbury $1.10, Taranaki $6
Last meeting: Taranaki 18, Canterbury 9 (September 15 in New Plymouth)
How these two teams' paths have diverged since the Cantabs were famously denied the Ranfurly shield a month ago. Taranaki have since lost the shield and a home semi-final spot; whilst Canterbury have won their last five games by an average margin of - wait for it - 60 points to 13.
Both sides prefer to dominate up front before unleashing potent backlines to do the scoring; making the forward battle particularly important.
The amber and blacks have had another season of overachievement and their brilliant captain Craig Clarke deserves special mention. But even without injured loose forwards Matt Todd and Nasi Manu, the Cantabrians are an irresistible force and it's going to take something special to stop their drive for five titles.
Tip: Canterbury by 15 points
Wellington v Auckland, 7.05pm Saturday, Wellington
Head to head: Wellington $1.45, Auckland $2.60 
Last meeting: Auckland 43, Wellington 30 (September 22 at Eden Park)
There's little between these two teams, who finished with identical eight win, two loss records. The skill of Auckland's outside backs is already well-known, but Wellington's Jason Woodward and Matt Proctor have come on in leaps and bounds, while openside Ardie Savea must be a candidate for player of the season.
Expect Savea to wage war with experienced opposite Daniel Braid at the breakdown, but the backs should see plenty of ball in an open contest too. Both sides are relatively unburdened by injury and have had ample time off; Auckland in particular haven't played since last Thursday.
Wellington haven't won the domestic title in twelve years and seem to have had a mental block about facing Auckland in recent years. But on their home patch, they might do enough to book a final spot.
Tip: Wellington by 5 points
Championship semi-finals
Otago v Tasman, 7.35pm Friday, Dunedin
Head to head: Otago $1.45, Tasman $2.60
Last meeting: Otago 39, Tasman 13 (September 23, 2012 in Dunedin)
Anyone who bet on these two teams meeting in a semi-final at the start of the season will be watching this one on a fifty-two inch flatscreen in their tropical resort villa. Tasman's resurgence from bottom of the pile in 2011 has been built on attacking flair; while no less remarkable is Otago rising from the collapse of the ORFU in February with homegrown talent to burn.
Tasman inexplicably threw away a home semi by surrending to a hapless Harbour last weekend; more crucially, they lost key outside backs Tom Marshall and Robbie Malneek to injury. Add the return of Adam Thomson to Otago's forward pack and combine it with the fact Tasman have never beaten Otago and the hosts will have to think the rugby gods are smiling on them.
But this game is tough to pick because of Tasman's unpredictability. On their home patch though, with a firing backline, Otago should have enough to book an unlikely final spot.
Tip: Otago by 7 points
Counties v Southland, 2.05pm, Pukekohe
Head to head: Counties $1.25, Southland $3.75
Last meeting: Counties 30, Southland 9 (August 26 in Pukekohe)
Apart from a 35-7 trouncing of Hawke's Bay, the Stags have never really played well enough this year to earn a home semi. By contrast, Counties have been sizzling at times and rediscovered their mojo with a big win over Northland last weekend.
They can attack from anywhere and everywhere, with a big, mobile forward pack and fleet-footed backs like Tim Nanai-Williams and Sherwin Stowers. Forward graft will always be Southland's mantra and although injuries have hit them hard this year, they've uncovered a couple of quality backs too in Scott Eade and Marty McKenzie.
It's hard to imagine two teams with more contrasting styles. Southland are the quintessential wet weather team and if Pukekohe turns on a stinker of a night, they'll be well in the content. On a dry, firm track though, they're dead meat.
Tip: Counties by 17 points
Gamer over and Counties were in serious trouble until last 20 mins . They ended up winning 48-23.
My prediction of 21 came good...well within 5 so get max points on Superrbu

Counties-Manukau v Southland

 Counties may have locked up a playoff place early and Southland only at the last minute, but these two sides both have eyes on the same prize - two more wins will see them back into the top flight where they have spent a good deal of time since the NPC started back in 1976.

VENUE & TIME: Ecolight Stadium, Pukekohe, Saturday October 20 @ 1405

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 27; Counties-Manukau 16, Southland 9, drawn 2.

LAST TIME: August 26, 2012 (Pukekohe, round 1) – Counties-Manukau 30-9 Southland.

WALKING WOUNDED: Counties-Manukau will be pleased to get DJ Forbes back from sevens duties, so the loose forwards have been rejigged and Ronald Raaymakers has gone back to lock. Baden Kerr also makes a welcome return at first-five. Southland has three changes: Hoani MacDonald will start at lock and Scott McKee at blindside, while Kade Poki is on the right wing. Alex Ryan, Alex Taylor and Mark Wells make way for them respectively.

FORM:
Counties-Manukau:
Round 6: beat Manawatu 31-28 (a)
Round 7: lost to Auckland 18-22 (a)
Round 8: lost to Waikato 28-32 (h)
Round 9: lost to Tasman 19-28 (h)
Round 10: beat Northland 44-31 (a)

Southland:
Round 6: beat North Harbour 27-17 (a)
Round 7: beat Northland 16-12 (h)
Round 8: lost to Canterbury 0-84 (a)
Round 9: lost to Taranaki 18-47 (h)
Round 10: beat Manawatu 17-11 (h)

Counties had three shots at locking up the division before finally getting it right at Whangarei, where the necessary four tries were on the board shortly after halftime. The Steelers ran out to a big lead but the game lost its shape then and became rather too skittery as both sides concentrated on scoring tries and left the defence to look after itself. Counties will have taken confidence from that match after the three losses, and they have also got their scoring mojo back – a combination that will not do the Steelers any harm at all.

Southland had to work hard to even make it this far, as their slow start meant they were always trying to make up ground on the sides that had got away better. Two solid defeats by Premiership playoff teams were sandwiched by three wins over the sides that finished below them in the Championship, and that last-gasp win over Manawatu was a gritty performance as the game could easily have been lost. It also showed that Southland can still do the things that we’ve seen so often over the last few years, so a warning should have reached Pukekohe long before now.

WHO'S HOT: Two young loose forwards have impressed for Counties this year, with both Ma’ama Vaipulu and Jimmy Tupou turning in strong first seasons. Vaipulu is a strong ball-carrier and pretty quick around the paddock for a solidly-built guy. He tackles hard and has also been notable on several occasions when Counties has turned ball over at the breakdown. Tupou, a much taller man, is a good lineout forward and an athletic mover around the pitch; he, too, carries the ball well and does his share at the coal-face. Both will need to be on song against the rugged Southland loosies. Baden Kerr has been missed in the matches he has not played, as he brings calm control to the team and has good tactical awareness. Kerr is likely to use his strong boot to try and pin Southland in the corners, but he’s not scared to have a run and tops it all off with good results off the tee.

Jamie Mackintosh battled through a hard game last week when far from at his physical best, but his example lifted the troops in what was a rugged forward encounter. Mackintosh carried the ball often, almost always in heavy traffic, and never shirked on defence or in the scrum, where Southland did well. Tim Boys was another who played hard for the full 80 minutes, even if he was initially hard to pick because the trademark hair is now gone. Once you got used to that, it was a lot easier to see how busy Southland’s No 7 was and the sort of impact he was having on the game. Fullback Marty McKenzie scored the winning try, capping off a good game. He has had his moments in 2012, but in recent weeks has found a consistent level of performance that has really helped his side. He is willing to attack, can kick well, is sound positionally and brave under fire – all signs of a good young player.

WE THINK: Southland will be hoping that they can make this into a forward battle, with plenty of set-pieces and not straying too far from the breakdowns. That’s their game, and they play it well. Counties, on the other hand, will be looking for wide open spaces but they’ll need to do the hard work first. If the pack gets it right and the backs minimise their handling errors Counties should win comfortably, but not getting it right will make the day a lot harder than it needs to be.

TEAMS:
Counties-Manukau: 1. Simon Lemalu, 2. Mahonri Schwalger, 3. Matt Talaese, 4. Ronald Raaymakers, 5. Daniel Adongo, 6. Ma’ama Vaipulu, 7. DJ Forbes (capt), 8. Jimmy Tupou, 9. August Pulu, 10. Baden Kerr, 11. Sherwin Stowers, 12. Bundee Aki, 13. Reynold Lee-Lo, 14. Tony Pulu, 15. Tim Nanai-Williams.

Reserves: 16. Suliasi Taufalele, 17. Maka Tatafu, 18. Sikeli Nabou, 19. Bruce Kaino, 20. David Bason, 21. Kane Hancy, 22. Tyrone Lefau.

Southland: 1. Jamie Mackintosh (capt), 2. Jason Rutledge, 3. Nick Barrett, 4. Josh Bekhuis, 5. Hoani MacDonald, 6. Scott McKee, 7. Tim Boys, 8. Elliot Dixon, 9. Tayler Adams, 10. Scott Eade, 11. Tim Cornforth, 12. Matt Saunders, 13. Cardiff Vaega, 14. Kade Poki, 15. Marty McKenzie.

Reserves: 16. Brayden Mitchell, 17. Tukiterangi Raimona, 18. Michael Fatialofa, 19. Dion Bates, 20. Nemia Kenatale, 21. Junior Ngaluafe, 22. Mark Wells.
Pete says Counties will make sure they do not keep running into Stags tight 5. The weather is good but windy so I expect a bit of open rugby. Counties to play wide ball to their good backs and win by 21. I would say more but it is a semi and Stags realize they only have to play really well for a couple of games and they go up, and will therefore play with much heart.
Finally started throwing ball around and CM finally win 48-23. But only started to get ahead in last 20 mins.

Preview: Canterbury v Taranaki 

 Taranaki was the last team to trouble Canterbury, let alone beat them, but in the five weeks since that Ranfurly Shield match the two sides have seen their seasons go in opposite directions. If Taranaki wants to make its first top-level final, it's going to need to find form that has been MIA for some weeks now as the Cantabs are red-hot.

VENUE & TIME: AMI Stadium, Addington, Saturday August 20 @ 1635

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 59; Canterbury 42, Taranaki 15, drawn 2.

LAST TIME: September 15, 2012 (New Plymouth, round 5) - Taranaki 18-9 Canterbury.

WALKING WOUNDED: Canterbury had something of a loose forward crisis this week, with both Matt Todd and Nasi Manu being ruled out with knee injuries. As a result, Jordan Taufua was recalled from Tasman to fill one of the bench gaps. Wyatt Crockett has again been released by the All Blacks, and he'll start in the front row. Taranaki has made a few changes, especially in the loose trio where Kane Barrett and Blade Thomson were both ruled out after Wellington. There has also been a shuffle in the three-quarters with Frazier Climo out through a calf strain, with James Marshall starting at fullback, Andre Taylor and Waisake Naholo taking the wings and Jackson Ormond going to the bench.

FORM:
Canterbury:
Round 6: beat Waikato 52-27 (a)
Round 7: beat Southland 84-0 (h)
Round 8: beat Northland 56-11 (a)
Round 9: beat Hawke's Bay 44-3 (a)
Round 10: beat Bay of Plenty 63-22 (h)

Taranaki:
Round 6: beat Northland 32-31 (a)
Round 7: beat Manawatu 59-18 (h, RS)
Round 8: lost to Waikato 10-46 (h, RS)
Round 9: beat Southland 47-18 (a)
Round 10: lost to Wellington 17-33 (a)

Since losing that Ranfurly Shield match, Canterbury has been on a team that reminds one of the great Auckland sides on the late 1980s. They haven't scored less than 44 points or six tries in any of the five matches, and the games have been well locked away not long after halftime. Knockers might suggest they haven't played any formidable sides in that run - Waikato wasn't going well at the time - but the style in which Canterbury has put its opponents to the sword has really impressed.

After seven rounds Taranaki looked a good bet to host a semi, but since then someone has let all the air out of the tyres. Apart from the last 20 minutes against Southland, Taranaki has looked ordinary - forget the last quarter at Wellington, the game was long gone by then and Wellington had the cue firmly in the rack. Injuries, especially in the loose forwards, haven't helped but at the moment Taranaki seems to be running on fumes - and that won't be good enough this weekend.

WHO'S HOT: Everyone in a Canterbury jersey looked good last weekend, and there wasn't an area where the red-and-blacks did not dominate. George Whitelock is having a fine season both as captain and on the side of the scrum; he hasn't been a heavy try-scorer over his career but seems to get one every week at present. Tom Taylor continues to slot almost all his goals; he has kicked 60 out of 68 goal attempts this year (88 percent) and has 142 points without a try - quite some feat. Since nobody has managed to stop him taking seven or eight shots a game in recent weeks, it's easy to see the damage he causes. Andy Ellis also causes a lot of angst among opposing teams, but in a totally different way. He picks his options well, runs good lines on attack and reads the game on defence, all the while making sure his forwards are hard at work. He is certainly sending up a ‘don't forget me' to the national selectors.

Taranaki has taken the unusual step of restoring Craig Clarke to the side but leaving the captaincy with Jason Eaton, which suggests Clarke is tiring after a huge season. He has done everything asked of him all year - including battling a dicky knee - and has never shirked any of the hardest work. When it's over, he can reflect on a year most players would love to have in the CV. James Broadhurst is an interesting choice at blindside flank, but the cupboard was getting pretty bare and experience counted a lot more than an extra yard of pace. That said, Broadhurst has played well all year and is certainly a force around the field and he has stepped his running game up a notch. Beauden Barrett looked rusty last week, which was hardly surprising as he's played four minutes of rugby in more than a month. But he needs to step it up about 200 percent from that effort this time, and needs to match Tom Taylor off the kicking tee if Taranaki is to have any chance in this game.

WE THINK: If anyone is thinking about dropping a few bob on Taranaki at the TAB, they'll get either an 18.5-point start or hefty odds in a square go, which is only fair given what the two sides have delivered lately. It's hard - make that almost impossible - to see Taranaki winning this one; they haven't been good recently, and Canterbury has been tearing teams apart. If the weather behaves itself, Canterbury should win this one with plenty in hand.

TEAMS:
Canterbury: 1. Wyatt Crockett, 2. Ben Funnell, 3. Paea Fa'anunu, 4. Joel Everson, 5. Dominic Bird, 6. George Whitelock (capt), 7. Jed Brown, 8. Luke Whitelock, 9. Andy Ellis, 10. Tyler Bleyendaal, 11. Johnny McNicholl, 12. Ryan Crotty, 13. Robbie Fruean, 14. Adam Whitelock, 15. Tom Taylor.

Reserves: 16. Codie Taylor, 17. Joe Moody, 18. Matt Symons, 19. Jordan Taufua, 20. Willi Heinz, 21. Telusa Veainu, 22. Stephen Gee.


Taranaki: 1. Chris King, 2. Timo Tutavaha, 3. Michael Bent, 4. Craig Clarke, 5. Jason Eaton (capt), 6. James Broadhurst, 7. Chris Walker, 8. Jarrad Hoeata, 9. Chris Smylie, 10. Beauden Barrett, 11. Waisake Naholo, 12. Jayden Hayward, 13. Kurt Baker, 14. Andre Taylor, 15. James Marshall.

Reserves: 16. Laurence Corlett, 17. Carl Carmichael, 18. Nemia Soqeta, 19. Adrian Wyrill, 20. Jamison Gibson-Park, 21. Seta Tamanivalu, 22. Jackson Ormond.
Pete says this is an excellent preview courtesy of ITM CUP dot co.nz
Canterbury by 28

Preview: Wellington v Auckland

Wellington and Auckland have a fair playoff history now, with Auckland generally getting the better of it. That's something Wellington will want to change this Saturday when they host the blue-and-whites, who took out the round-robin match 43-30 a month ago in Auckland.

VENUE & TIME: Westpac Stadium, Wellington, Saturday October 20 @ 1935

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 173; Wellington 78, Auckland 92, drawn 3.

LAST TIME: September 22, 2012 (Auckland, round 7) -Auckland 43-30 Wellington.

WALKING WOUNDED: Wellington has named an unchanged team from the one initially intended to face Taranaki, although Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen was a late scratching from that match. Auckland's intention was to make only two changes, with Liaki Moli and Joe Edwards returning to the starting pack, but Ali Williams is an uncertain starter (no) thanks to a back problem. If he cannot play, Andrew van der Heijden will take his place with Nathan Hughes moving up to the bench.

FORM:
Wellington:
Round 6: lost to Auckland 30-43 (a)
Round 7: beat Bay of Plenty 36-26 (a)
Round 8: beat North Harbour 34-28 (h)
Round 9: beat Otago 49-22 (a)
Round 10: beat Taranaki 33-17 (h)

Auckland:
Round 6: beat Taranaki 43-32 (h)
Round 7: beat Wellington 43-30 (h)
Round 8: beat Counties-Manukau 22-18 (h)
Round 9: beat North Harbour 36-16 (a)
Round 10: beat Otago 24-19 (a)

Wellington has only been held to less than 30 points twice all year, and the most recent time was when they scored 29 in beating Waikato. They might have lost to Auckland in a high-scoring game a month back but since then the Lions have been collecting five points a week without necessarily playing for 80 minutes. When they do floor it, though, it would take a very good side to stay with them and nobody outside the others in the top three has managed to do it yet.

Auckland's last loss was the thumping they got from Bay of Plenty back in round five, and since then they've been rolling along nicely. They've had a couple of toughies -one was last week, but a couple of rough refereeing decisions didn't help the cause -but have always looked to have enough in hand to remain in control. When Auckland gets going they're hard for any team to stay with, and none outside the top group would likely be able to do so at this stage of the year.

WHO'S HOT: Dane Coles had an excellent game for Wellington last week, continuing a good season. As well as doing all his tight work-the Wellington lineout is going very nicely at present -he added several flourishes in open play, not the least of which was a delicate chip for Jason Woodward to collect and score from. Ross Filipo has been in fine form as a blindside flanker, still offering plenty of grunt and remaining a good lineout option but getting around well and proving a menace in the open. He was another who had a big game against Taranaki, and his ability to fill the No 6 jersey so well has really helped his side. It's a measure of Tim Bateman's reliability and durability that he was subbed for the first time all year last week, and then only after the game was well won. Everything he does carries the stamp of class, and in a backline where others get bigger headlines he's one of the most important men on the park.

Angus Ta'avao has been one of the most impressive tight forwards anywhere in recent weeks, as he's really getting into his work. His scrummaging is always strong and he will bring plenty of pressure to bear on the Lions front row, while he really gets around for a big bloke and makes good decisions when he has the ball. Steven Luatua has pushed on in 2012 and has moved up from ‘good provincial player' to a guy who will stake a claim at the next level. He's a hard worker, rugged and tough, and a dangerous ball-carrier. Gareth Anscombe, with 170 points, a 50m range and a kicking average of 84 percent, is an ever-present threat to punish sides. He has a shot at breaking Tony Brown's single-season record of 196 points, which has not been seriously challenged since it was set in 1998. Anscombe also brings tactical acumen, a good running game and vision to the Auckland backline -the Chiefs will be more than pleased that they picked him up for 2013.

WE THINK: This is the best match of the weekend and, by far, the hardest to pick. Both sides have been in fine form for the last month and you could make either favourite without being wrong. However, in a semi one has to win and we'll pick Wellington, mainly on the strength of home advantage as the Lions have not lost in their own park this year. That said, it's not a game that will get us rushing down to the TAB to drop the rent money on any prediction.

TEAMS:
Wellington: 1. Reg Goodes, 2. Dane Coles, 3. Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen, 4. Jeremy Thrush (capt), 5. Mark Reddish, 6. Ross Filipo, 7. Scott Fuglistaller, 8. Ardie Savea, 9. Frae Wilson, 10. Tim Bateman, 11. Jason Woodward, 12. Shaun Treeby, 13. Alipate Leiua, 14. Matt Proctor, 15. Charlie Ngatai.

Reserves: 16. Motu Matu'u, 17. Eric Sione, 18. Lua Lokotui, 19. Genesis Mamea, 20. Kayne Hammington, 21. Lima Sopoaga, 22. Ambrose Curtis.


Auckland:1. Pauliasi Manu, 2. Tom McCartney, 3. Angus Ta'avao, 4. Liaki Moli, 5. Ali Williams or Andrew Van der Heijden, 6. Steven Luatua, 7. Daniel Braid (capt), 8. Joe Edwards, 9. Alby Mathewson, 10. Gareth Anscombe, 11. Dave Thomas, 12. Hadleigh Parkes, 13. Malakai Fekitoa, 14. Ben Lam, 15.Charles Piutau.

Reserves: 16. Nathan Vella, 17. Siosiua Halonukonuka, 18. Van der Heijden or Nathan Hughes, 19. Sean Polwart, 20. Scott Patterson, 21. Simon Hickey, 22. Lolagi Visinia.

REFEREE: Bryce Lawrence

Pete agrees...Lions by3

Weather will be windy so this could go either way and may come down to who gets the most penalties with wind at their back

I would say Lions pack has edge but Auckland backs have the edge.