ITM Cup pre-playoff rd

Preview: Counties-Manukau v Tasman

Both teams would have a lot to gain from winning this match; a victory here would confirm Counties at home for the playoffs while a Tasman win would ensure the Makos will be in action again in two weeks' time.

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VENUE & TIME: Ecolight Stadium, Pukekohe, Tuesday October 9 @ 1935

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 3; Counties-Manukau 2, Tasman 1.

LAST TIME: July 24, 2011 (Blenheim) – Tasman 23-32 Counties-Manukau.

WALKING WOUNDED: Counties has made a few changes, but welcomes Baden Kerr back after he was a late scratching from the Waikato match. Adam Cathcart, injured early in that game, will not play against Tasman and neither will Simon Lemalu, Daniel Adongo or Reynold Lee-Lo, all of whom have been regulars through the season. Lemalu and Lee-Lo are on the bench, so the guts of the matchday 22 remains the same. Tasman is showing only one change, with Campbell Johnstone returning to the side after missing the last gasme.

FORM:
Counties-Manukau:
Round 4: beat Bay of Plenty 47-13 (h)
Round 5: beat Otago 43-12 (h)
Round 6: beat Manawatu 31-28 (a)
Round 7: lost to Auckland 18-22 (a)
Round 8: lost to Waikato 28-32 (h)

Tasman:
Round 4: beat Southland 13-10 (h)
Round 5: lost to Northland 17-20 (h)
Round 6: lost to Otago 13-39 (a)
Round 7: lost to Waikato 19-20 (a)
Round 8: beat Bay of Plenty 17-3 (h)

Counties-Manukau could, and should, have wrapped up home field some time ago. The Steelers had been tearing it up for weeks when they met Auckland and an uncharacteristically skittery effort saw that game lost. They should have beaten Waikato on the weekend; Counties was ahead 25-10 but not quite in full control when replacements were made that didn't work out. Neither did the handling, the goal-kicking or the lineout – and Waikato saw enough of a chance to get up off the floor and take an unlikely win.

Tasman, on the other hand, simply had to win to give itself a decent playoff shot, and turned in a very good effort against Bay of Plenty, drawing the visitors' forward sting and taking advantage of a couple of gaps to post two first-half tries. That proved to be enough as the two sides slogged through a scoreless second spell and even if the Makos were let off a couple of hooks through Bay of Plenty errors, they were value for their second win of the year over Premiership opposition.

WHO'S HOT: Mark Selwyn was thrown into the Waikato match earlier than he expected and responded with a strong performance in the slightly unfamiliar No 8 role. He got around the field well, made his tackles and was a disruptive presence at the breakdown, while his ball-carrying was normally strong and secure. Behind the scrum Bundee Aki was the pick, scoring two tries and creating a couple of other chances that should have been finished by his support players. This guy has real speed and an eye for weak spots in the defence, and it's easy to see why the Chiefs snapped him up. Sherwin Stowers was another Counties back who was always dangerous and he has the pace and finishing skills to trouble any defence. He is one of those wingers who likes to roam in search of work, and if Tasman do not keep him under close watch he could do them some real damage.

Several Tasman players must be attracting the attention of Super rugby teams, and workhorse flanker Shane Christie is the sort of player who would not be out of place one level up. He has been consistently good with a high work-rate, a high tackle count and any number of good carries. If Counties leaves too much ball lying around this time, he could have a field day. When things got tough last week, centre Kieron Fonotia stepped up with some smashing defence that killed several promising moves stone dead. He made good reads to get the right man, and then dumped that player hard on his backside. Peter Betham has been prominent all year for Tasman and is a bigger version of Counties' Stowers – a player who goes looking for work and who has the ability to hit the gap and break through. The Steelers have to guard against this bloke, and then tackle well.

WE THINK: Counties-Manukau should win this game … but if they make the same pile of mistakes as in the last two weeks it will be tough. Tasman is one of those teams that is hard to break down and, if the Makos get in front, doubly hard to peg back. The Steelers have several work-ons from the last two matches, with dodgy handling right at the top of the list, but if they get that right they should be able to claim the points that will, finally, secure home playoff advantage.

TEAMS:
Counties-Manukau: 1. Peter Hale, 2. Mahonri Schwalger (capt), 3. Matt Talaese, 4. Ronald Raaymakers, 5. Jimmy Tupou, 6. Mark Selwyn, 7. Ma'ama Vaipulu, 8. Bruce Kaino, 9. August Pulu, 10. Baden Kerr, 11. Sherwin Stowers, 12. Bundee Aki, 13. Tyrone Lefau, 14. Tony Pulu, 15. Tim Nanai-Williams.

Reserves: 16. Suliasi Taufalele, 17. Simon Lemalu, 18. Sikeli Nabou, 19. Sean Reidy, 20. David Bason, 21. Ray Laulala, 22. Reynold Lee-Lo.

Tasman: 1. Tim Perry, 2. Quentin MacDonald, 3. Campbell Johnstone, 4. Filipo Levi, 5. Joe Wheeler, 6. Tevita Kolomatangi, 7. Shane Christie, 8. Jordan Taufua, 9. Jeremy Su'a, 10. Hayden Cripps, 11. Robbie Malneek, 12. Andrew Goodman (capt), 13. Kieron Fonotia, 14. Peter Betham, 15. Tom Marshall.

Reserves: 16. Francis Smith, 17. Sam Prattley, 18. Riki Hoeata, 19. Gary Redmond, 20. Steve Alfeld, 21. Albert Nikoro, 22. James Lowe.
Pete says...a good, well written insight into this game.
Both sets of backs have been on fire....well, looking better than average.
Home advantage should see Steelers through.
Makos have come a long way since beginning of season when they were basically the rank outsider at 16/1 to win this division.
Counties need to win tonight. this will give them the luxury of playing a 2nd XV against Northland later in the week. Fail to win and they leave the door open for both otago and tasman to overtake them and will have to field a strong team against Northland to ensure home ground advantage.

Counties by 5
Game over and Tasman played well and won 28-19
The secret for Makos was their backs. Hopefully they will continue to get the ball to their backs, but I doubt it.

Preview: Hawke's Bay v Canterbury

There are easier ways for a team to get itself out of a hole than by playing a Canterbury side that has rattled up three consecutive half-centuries, but Hawke's Bay has the unenviable task of trying to find enough competition points to salvage its season against the red-hot Cantabs.

LAST TIME: July 30, 2010 (Christchurch) - Canterbury 23-23 Hawke's Bay.

WALKING WOUNDED: Hawke's Bay couldn't have made a worse start against Manawatu, losing Zac Guildford (hamstring) and Mike Coman (neck) in the first eight minutes and neither can play in this match. Also missing are Adrian Barone (shoulder) and Chris Eaton (calf); the Magpies now have nearly a full backline who are done for the year. There are a few changes to the Canterbury run-on XV although there are none in the matchday 22; the coaches have taken the opportunity to give some of the hardest-worked members of the side a few minutes on the bench at the start of this match.

FORM:
Hawke's Bay:
Round 4: lost to Taranaki 6-22 (a, RS)
Round 5: lost to Southland 7-35 (a)
Round 6: beat Bay of Plenty 42-41 (h)
Round 7: beat Otago 21-15 (h)
Round 8: lost to Manawatu 7-20 (a)

Canterbury:
Round 4: beat Wellington 20-12 (h)
Round 5: lost to Taranaki 9-18 (a, RS)
Round 6: beat Waikato 52-27 (a)
Round 7: beat Southland 84-0 (h)
Round 8: beat Northland 56-11 (a)

Hawke's Bay missed a golden chance to get out of the drop spot when Manawatu won at Palmerston North, as Bay of Plenty had already been beaten at Nelson a couple of days earlier. On the day there was no question about which side was better; Hawke's Bay could only manage one try with the gale behind them and fell behind within two minutes of the restart; from there Manawatu powered home on the back of a big forward effort. Hawke's Bay does have two chances to push clear of the drop, but Canterbury and then Waikato in a Shield challenge are both daunting prospects.

Canterbury may have started a little slowly this year but now, as we come to the business end of the season, they couldn't be hotter. The red-and-blacks have hit 50 each of the last three times out and torn sides apart with some nicely constructed attacks of their own and have proved lethal off any turnovers left lying around. The east-west rugby of early rounds has been replaced by a decided north-south attack, and just at the moment no team looks in better shape. They are also relatively injury-free, so there is not much disruption to the side from week to week.

WHO'S HOT: As usual, Karl Lowe got his nose bashed in at the rough end of a rough forward battle, making tackles and scrapping for the ball whenever Manawatu may have exposed it for a few seconds at a breakdown. By the end he was frustrated since Manawatu made it hard to turn over, but his effort never wavered. The shuffled Magpies backline will have its hands full and two key players are Andrew Horrell and Marvin Karawana, since they have to contain two of Canterbury's biggest threats. Actually the Hawke's Bay pair are a pretty good match for their opposites, a very skilful distributor who doesn't make many errors and a powerful guy who is a rugged tackler and well capable of taking on a big man. How these two get on will have a lot to do with how the team gets on as a whole.

Wyatt Crockett was a force at Whangarei, as you would expect from a bloke who has played test matches this year. His scrummaging was strong, his general play good and his physical presence was always there. In a good pack, he stood out. Tyler Bleyendaal has had a mixed season but in recent weeks has been playing his best rugby of the year. He doesn't have to worry about anything except steering his very good team around the park, and he's doing a good job. His distribution, tactical kicking and reading of the game are all better than they were earlier in the year, and he's a threat to any defence. Adam Whitelock doesn't get many headlines, or as many tries as other players around him, but he's one of those reliable men every team needs. He won't miss many tackles, or drop many high balls, or waste a chance if it comes along. Instead, he'll always give his side a strong 80 minutes and make life easier for those around him – which they appreciate.

WE THINK: This was always going to be a hard game for Hawke's Bay and the ever-growing injury list has made it even tougher. Given the form of the two sides, and a forecast that includes the words 'fine' and 'light breezes', nobody would do anything other than pick Canterbury to win by a big score. It has been 30 years since Hawke's Bay last won this match, and it would take one of the biggest upsets in years to end that sequence.

TEAMS:

Hawke's Bay: 1. Brendon Edmonds, 2. Ash Dixon, 3. Peter Borlase, 4. Ross Kennedy, 5. Maselino Paulino, 6. Trent Boswell-Wakefield, 7. Tivaini Fomai, 8. Karl Lowe (capt), 9. Isaac Paewai, 10. Ihaia West, 11. Penikolo Latu, 12. Andrew Horrell, 13. Marvin Karawana, 14. Maritino Nemani, 15. Gillies Kaka.

Reserves: 16. Hika Elliot, 17. Mitch Alcock, 18. Johan Schoonbee, 19. Adam Bradey, 20. Michael Ruru, 21. Star Timu, 22. Bronson Neera.


Canterbury:1. Wyatt Crockett, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Paea Fa'anunu, 4. Luke Katene, 5. Dominic Bird, 6. Luke Whitelock, 7. George Whitelock (capt), 8. Nasi Manu, 9. Willi Heinz, 10. Tyler Bleyendaal, 11. Telusa Veainu, 12. Tom Taylor, 13. Robbie Fruean, 14. Adam Whitelock, 15. Johnny McNicholl.

Reserves: 16. Ben Funnell, 17. Andrew Olorenshaw, 18. Joel Everson, 19. Matt Todd, 20. Andy Ellis, 21. Kolio Hifo, 22. Stephen Gee.

THE FINAL ‘midweek’ fixture of 2012 should see some sense of normality return to many rugby households around the traps.
And it’s a good ‘un too.
The Magpies will haveto win to stay in top tier.
Canterbury will be pushing hard for a home semifinal.
Andrew Horrell has another chance to put one over the province that rejected him some seasons back.
Cantabs by 4 tries and bonus point...by 34 
Game over and I actually ended up going with +38 to cantab and final score was 44-3

Preview: Otago v Auckland

The first recognised provincial match ever played in this country was between teams representing combined clubs of Otago and Auckland, back in 1875. This year's edition of the ancient rivalry will focus on getting the best possible playoff position, since both teams are already confirmed in their respective semi-finals.

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VENUE & TIME: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, Thursday October 11 @ 1935

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 80; Otago 20, Auckland 52, drawn 8.

LAST TIME: July 20, 2011 (Auckland) Auckland 25-32 Otago.

WALKING WOUNDED: Neither team has been changed much from last weekend, although a few players have been cycled into the respective run-on XVs from the benches. Each side has named a bench with five forwards on it, which suggests both are expecting a high attrition rate as fatigue kicks in.

FORM:
Otago:
Round 5: beat North Harbour 54-25 (h)
Round 6: beat Tasman 39-13 (h)
Round 7: lost to Hawke's Bay 15-21 (a)
Round 8: beat Manawatu 51-35 (a)
Round 9: lost to Wellington 22-49 (h)

Auckland:
Round 5: lost to Bay of Plenty 16-37 (a)
Round 6: beat Taranaki 43-32 (h)
Round 7: beat Wellington 43-30 (h)
Round 8: beat Counties-Manukau 22-18 (h)
Round 9: beat North Harbour 36-16 (a)

Otago never recovered from a whirlwind Wellington start last week and was chasing the game after the first quarter. The game was decided before halftime, when Wellington led 35-10, but Otago did contribute plenty to a high-paced spectacle. The Dark Blues were simply over-run by a good team playing good rugby, although they did manage to collect three tries of their own. There may be a bit of a gap between Otago and the top teams, but it's not as wide as feared earlier in the year.

Auckland registered a predictable win at Albany and did so in predictable fashion, setting the standard with a huge first scrum and then making several busts out wide as the first-half points ticked up. The second spell was not as impressive but Auckland still managed to add two more tries; the first of these, by Daniel Braid, secured the bonus point and was enough to set the top four. It wasn't Auckland's best showing of the year, but they did the job they needed to.

WHO'S HOT: Liam Coltman has a big job in front of him on Thursday quite literally, since he's marking the very large and very powerful Pauliasi Manu. Auckland did a job on North Harbour's scrum last weekend, and it's up to Coltman and friends to make sure they hold steady on their own ball. Whatever else he achieves in the game is of secondary importance. Lee Allen also has a task at hand, since he'll have to be out scrapping with a good Auckland loose trio for any scraps that may be left lying around. He has been good in his appearances so far and can lay it all on the track this week, since there's plenty of loose forward cover on the bench. That cover is a bit thinner at halfback but in Fumiaki Tanaka, Otago has one of the standout players from the whole competition. He has been involved in almost everything good Otago has done this year and will give Auckland plenty as well.

Angus Ta'avao had a big game at Albany last week, doing his share to wreck North Harbour's early scrums and making his presence felt all around the park not least when bulldozing over a couple of defenders to collect his try. He has responded well to plenty of playing time, and is enjoying his season. Auckland's outside backs get lots of headlines, but the steady midfield work of Hadleigh Parkes and Malakai Fekitoa often paves the way. Neither is a flashy player, but neither makes many errors and seldom will either set one of his mates up for a pounding. Parkes has the better tactical boot, while Fekitoa is really strong in contact and often gets to cart the ball into a defensive line and then secure it while the rest regroup around him. So far this season, both have served their side well and they provide one of the better midfield combos going around.

WE THINK: Otago has battled with top-end Premiership teams this season and is likely to do so again this week, because the Auckland pack is bigger, stronger and more experienced than the Otago eight. Both backlines have game-breakers all along the line but these players need good ball, and it's likely Auckland will see more of that precious commodity. We expect Auckland to win this match with a bit in hand, but it should be fun to watch.

TEAMS:
Otago: 1. Aki Seiuli, 2. Sam Anderson-Heather, 3. Liam Coltman, 4. Tom Franklin, 5. Justin Ives, 6. TJ Ioane, 7. Lee Allen, 8. Gareth Evans, 9. Fumiaki Tanaka, 10. Hayden Parker, 11. Buxton Popoali'i, 12. Glenn Dickson (capt), 13. Jayden Spence, 14. Marshall Suckling, 15. Tony Ensor.

Reserves: 16. Shota Horie, 17. Hisa Sasagi, 18. Rob Verbakel, 19. Adam Hill, 20. Peter Breen, 21. Michael Collins, 22. Hugh Blake.


Auckland:1. Pauliasi Manu, 2. Tom McCartney, 3. Angus Ta'avao, 4. Ali Williams, 5. Andrew van der Heijden, 6. Steven Luatua, 7. Daniel Braid (capt), 8. Nathan Hughes, 9. Alby Mathewson, 10. Gareth Anscombe, 11. Dave Thomas, 12. Hadleigh Parkes, 13. Malakai Fekitoa, 14. Ben Lam, 15.Charles Piutau.

Reserves: 16. Nathan Vella, 17. Siosiua Halonukonuka, 18. Liaki Moli, 19. Sean Polwart, 20. Scott Patterson, 21. Simon Hickey, 22. Joe Edwards.



Pete says
 Both these are assured of a semi-final spot in their respective divisions, but there is still home advantage to be won which is so crucial in knockout rugby.
Otago have Tasman breathing down their necks waiting to snatch their home semi final berth so they should be pretty motivated for this one. Auckland could still grab top spot or second depending on results elsewhere but the two sides currently occupying those positions, Canterbury and Wellington, both have home games to finish off the season so Auckland know it is out of their hands which may mean they are not as motivated as Otago.
 Auckland has lost just two games this year, to Canterbury and Bay of Plenty, and has won many of its games by its sheer physical size and ability to muscle teams away at the breakdown.
 Otago will play its fourth game in 13 days tomorrow night so some of the players may be feeling the pace. It will be keen to gain a win over Auckland as it is yet to bag a victory against any Premiership side.
It's hard to write too much about this one. Auckland are the better side, it's Premiership against Championship, so they should get the win. However, Dunedin isn't an easy place to go and Otago have played some good stuff so I think a narrow Auckland win is the most likely outcome. Back them to win by 15 points. 
 Game over and Auckland missed the chance of getting a bonus pt. Tthey do not look like ITM Cup winners after this game which they won 24-19.

Preview: Southland v Manawatu

Both teams have everything to play for on Friday, as the winner will move into the top four and it will be up to Northland to dislodge them by beating Counties on Saturday. After disappointing seasons, getting into the playoffs at the 11th hour would be an achievement for either side.

VENUE & TIME: Rugby Park, Invercargill, Friday October 12 @ 1935

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 38; Southland 16, Manawatu 19, drawn 3.

LAST TIME: July 31, 2010 (Palmerston North) - Manawatu 23-37 Southland.

WALKING WOUNDED: Southland will need to get by without Jamie Mackintosh, whose arm injury suffered against Taranaki has ruled him out of this game. Nemia Kenatale is still missing, but the Stags did at least get Matt Saunders cleared after a late citing from Taranaki - the judiciary felt he had no case to answer. Manawatu have Grant Polson back in the colours and will be without David Te Moana, but the rest of the side that beat Hawke's Bay will be back in action. Callum Gibbins and Jason Emery were both under clouds but will play this vital match.

FORM:
Southland:
Round 5: beat Hawke's Bay 35-7 (h)
Round 6: beat North Harbour 27-17 (a)
Round 7: beat Northland 16-12 (h)
Round 8: lost to Canterbury 0-84 (a)
Round 9: lost to Taranaki 18-47 (h)

Manawatu:
Round 5: beat North Harbour 23-20 (a)
Round 6: lost to Counties-Manukau 28-31 (h)
Round 7: lost to Taranaki 18-59 (a, RS)
Round 8: lost to Otago 35-51 (h)
Round 9: beat Hawke's Bay 20-7 (h)

Southland's latest matches have seen the side go down heavily to two Premiership playoff teams but in very different ways; the Stags never fired a shot against Canterbury but gave Taranaki plenty of trouble for an hour. That match was tight until Jayden Hayward scored a brilliant solo try, after which Taranaki piled on the pressure and points. It was, however, a much better showing by Southland and went some way to erasing the memory of that walkover at Addington.

Manawatu was in dire playoff straits until it faced Hawke's Bay in a gale at Palmerston North and the Turbos responded with their best effort of the year. The home side battled hard into the wind after giving up an early try and turned only 3-7 behind, but a try within two minutes got Manawatu in front and an outstanding forward effort ensured they stayed there. The defence, which had leaked badly in recent matches, really stood up and every man played a big part in the victory.

WHO'S HOT: Southland veteran Matt Saunders joins a very small group of active players who have made 100 championship appearances this week; the only other two are Shield-era colleagues Jason Rutledge and Chris King. Saunders has been a valuable member of the Southland side for years, always reliable and a player who knows what is needed and how best to achieve this. But if the Stags are going to win here, the work will need to be done up front and a couple of other veterans, Josh Bekhuis and Tim Boys, will need to lead the way. Bekhuis has been slowly working back to his best form and he has been a commanding presence in recent matches, while Boys never flags in his untiring pursuit of the ball or ball-carrier. They will know that they must at least match the rugged Manawatu pack for intensity in what will be an intense match.

Fraser Stone was outstanding for Manawatu last week, proving safe as the go-to man at the front of the lineout and a tireless worker in the 80-minute trench warfare that was all part of playing in a gale. There were few headlines for the work he did, but Manawatu would have been lost without it. James Oliver was another Manawatu forward to have a big game, as he was a menace on either side of the ball. His rugged defence upset a lot of Hawke's Bay's plans and his carries, while never long, were just what was needed on a really difficult day. Behind the scrum Nathan George played his best game yet and that penalty shortly before halftime was one of the kicks of the season even if it was from only 30 metres. Into that wind it was a feat to even get it to the goal-line, let alone between the posts, but it was worth a lot more than just three points; it gave the team belief.

WE THINK: It's likely two good packs will cancel each other out, so paradoxically the backs may be the ones to decide this game. Manawatu has the livelier set, and certainly the quicker, but they are also more prone to making errors that let the other side off the hook. If that can be overcome, Manawatu may well get the win, but if the Turbos get a bit panicky they could hand the game to Southland. We'll say Manawatu will do enough - and one point will be enough.

TEAMS:
Southland: 1. Tukiterangi Raimona, 2. Jason Rutledge, 3. Nick Barrett, 4. Josh Bekhuis, 5. Alex Ryan, 6. Alex Taylor, 7. Tim Boys, 8. Elliot Dixon, 9. Tayler Adams, 10. Scott Eade, 11. Tim Cornforth, 12. Matt Saunders, 13. Cardiff Vaega, 14. Mark Wells, 15. Marty McKenzie.

Reserves: 16. Brayden Mitchell, 17. Juan Koen, 18. Michael Fatialofa, 19. Dion Bates, 21. Matt Gandy, 22. Keanu Kahukura, 23. Hoani MacDonald.

Manawatu: 1. Grant Polson, 2. Rob Foreman, 3. Ma'afu Fia, 4. Fraser Stone, 5. Michael Fitzgerald, 6. Nick Crosswell (capt), 7. Callum Gibbins, 8. James Oliver, 9. Papa Wharewera, 10. Nathan George, 11. Nehe Milner-Skudder, 12. Shaun Curry, 13. Jason Emery, 14. Craig Clare, 15. Lewis Marshall.

Reserves: 16. Bryn Templeman, 17. Eric Fry, 18. Reece Robinson, 19. Antonio Kirikiri, 20. Karl Bryson, 21. Hamish Northcott, 22. Willie Paia'aua.
Pete has to agree. Manawatu are 2/1 outsider on this game and that is strange. They beat Hawkes Bay last time, causing the Bay to be relegated from top tier. They have heart.
Stags have been very disappointing this year. If either Turbos or Stags win one will go on to playoffs for 2nd division, and from there it is but 2 games to be promoted. Both are motivated and with it raining tonight it will be a very close game with neither taking chances.
Dull, dull and a win to Turbos by 1 as above writer suggests. This way if Stags win by 4 or less I still get a half point for Superbru.
Game over and Turbos  were leading 11-10 in miserable weather. Stags score in last minute to win 17-11....bummer.

Preview: Northland v Counties Manukau

 Northland and Counties both like to play a fast-paced, attack-from-anywhere game that can fire up in spectacular style and occasionally implodes in a mess of handling errors and mistakes. Northland, however, has a lot more to lose this week-a place in the playoffs is theirs to win if they can.

VENUE & TIME: Toll Stadium, Whangarei, Saturday October 13 @ 1435

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 80; Northland 50, Counties-Manukau 26, drawn 4.

LAST TIME: August 27, 2011 (Pukekohe)-Counties-Manukau 39-19 Northland.

WALKING WOUNDED: Bryce Williams returns for Northland and will add height to the lineout, while there has been some shuffling in the loose trio. However, Northland will be pleased to field something close to its best lineup for what is the biggest match of the year. Since Otago's loss means Counties has a home semi-final, the team was changed around a bit for this game. Tana Umaga named an odd-looking pack, with the two midweek starting locks in the loose trio, and was forced to do without Baden Kerr for this match.

FORM:
Northland:
Round 5: beat Tasman 20-17 (a)
Round 6: lost to Taranaki 31-32 (h)
Round 7: lost to Southland 12-16 (a)
Round 8: lost to Bay of Plenty 19-31 (a)
Round 9: lost to Canterbury 11-56 (h)

Counties-Manukau:
Round 5: beat Otago 43-12 (h)
Round 6: beat Manawatu 31-28 (a)
Round 7: lost to Auckland 18-22 (a)
Round 8: lost to Waikato 28-32 (h)
Round 9: lost to Tasman 19-28 (h)

Northland has battled in recent weeks, losing two matches it should have won before missing a couple of points at Mt Maunganui and then getting thumped by Canterbury. While the score was large, it was also a bit deceiving; Canterbury led 28-11 with ten minutes to go and piled on four converted tries over the closing stages. Northland was never going to win that match but did offer some good moments; the trouble was every error was punished in a big way.

Counties-Manukau had a third shot at icing the division on Tuesday, and they came up short for the third time when Tasman took a deserved 28-19 victory. This was the Steelers first defeat by another Championship side and the early loss of Baden Kerr didn't help, although Tim Nanai-Williams kicked all his goals. The big difference was around the breakdown-Counties is missing several key loose forwards now-and Tasman was almost always able to diffuse threats before they became points.

WHO'S HOT: You didn't see too much from Northland last week as they knuckled under to the Canterbury juggernaut, but they'll be looking for a lot better on Saturday. Bryce Williams makes a timely return-especially against a team stacked with tall lineout options-and his ability to secure set-piece ball will be important. Northland has gone for two fast flankers, so keep an eye out for Dan Pryor. He should be leading the race to the loose ball, and then he makes good decisions once he gets to a breakdown. It would suit Northland if he can keep things moving quickly, and he has the talent and work-rate to do that. It's the same old story in the backline-much will depend on Rene Ranger. He's up against a relatively inexperienced marker and has been giving everyone grief recently, so look for Northland to try and get their big centre the ball in a bit of space.

Counties has lost an entire first-choice loose trio recently, but against Tasman the one guy who was a noticeable absentee (and not just because he's a huge Kenyan) was Daniel Adongo. He hits rucks hard these days and shifts bodies, something Counties could not do as the Makos cleaned up at the breakdown. The two Pulus, August at halfback and Tony on the wing, both have their moments in any match but some of them are ‘Oh, no' moments. August generally runs a tidy ship, even if it can have a few issues leaving port. If Northland wants to put him off his stroke, they have to strike early because once he settles down Counties start moving. Tony may not have the try records of the other three-quarters, but he's quick enough and in recent outings has been getting more involved on defence. His tackling can be very strong; he just needs to work on that consistency.

WE THINK: A couple of weeks ago you would have picked Counties without much hesitation, but recent events compel a closer look. The Steelers have run into real loose forward problems-so having two regular locks in the loosies this week is interesting-while Baden Kerr's loss will hurt. Northland has absolutely nothing to lose, so if it can get its game organised the Steelers may, once again, be under the pump. We've said it before: Counties should win, but …

TEAMS:
Northland: 1. Ross Wright, 2. Tone Kopelani, 3. Peni Kaufusi, 4. Hale T-Pole, 5. Bryce Williams (capt), 6. Dan Pryor, 7. Jack Ram, 8. William Whetton, 9. Samisoni Fisilau, 10. Ash Moeke, 11. Mateo Malupo, 12. Derek Carpenter, 13. Rene Ranger, 14. Dan Caprice, 15. Fa'atoina Autagavaia.

Reserves: 16. David Hall, 17. Justin Davies, 18. Jack Whetton, 19. Daniel Faleafa, 20. Tane Takulua, 21. Orene Ai'i, 22. Matt Wright.


Counties-Manukau: 1. Simon Lemalu, 2. Mahonri Schwalger (capt), 3. Matt Talaese, 4. Sikeli Nabou, 5. Daniel Adongo, 6. Ronald Raaymakers, 7. Ma'ama Vaipulu, 8. Jimmy Tupou, 9. August Pulu, 10. Kane Hancy, 11. Sherwin Stowers, 12. Bundee Aki, 13. Tyrone Lefau, 14. Tony Pulu, 15. Tim Nanai-Williams.

Reserves: 16. Suliasi Taufalele, 17. Maka Tatafu, 18. Bruce Kaino, 19. Sean Reidy, 20. David Bason, 21. Ray Laulala, 22. Jos

Pete says tough call. Northland have a strong side and looks nicely balanced. Weather should be good so maybe Counties haing 2 locks as loosies may backfire. Northland must win or their season is shot.
Ash Moeke has a good boot for penalties and Rene ranger when on form is excellent.
Of course you have to look at Counties backs and realize there is much speed there.
I'm going for Northland by 5 as they have the most to lose, and they are at home.  Counties already have home advantage for finals so they will probably be able to win the return if they are seed 1 and Northland seed 4. I reckon tana will pull players off if the going gets bad, so as not to lose players for finals. Plus I can't see many superbru players going for Northland, so if they win I should get a bit closer to top of rankings although Stags winning last game had most of Suoperbru backing them.

Preview: Waikato v Hawke's Bay (RS)

 Hawke's Bay need history to repeat if they want to stay in the Premiership for next year; in 1966 the Magpies nicked the Ranfurly Shield from Hamilton to start a fine reign, and not much less will do this time.

Pass It On 0

VENUE & TIME: Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, Saturday October 13 @ 1735

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 46; Waikato 24, Hawke's Bay 20, drawn 2.

LAST TIME: September 11, 2010 (Napier) -Hawke's Bay 27-27 Waikato.

WALKING WOUNDED: To nobody's surprise all the Waikato replacements who played against Counties-Manukau last week have been replaced by the regulars again, and this team has only one change (Joe Webber for Tim Mikkelson) from the one that thrashed Taranaki to claim the Shield. Hawke's Bay had its injury issues going back to at least the Manawatu match. The final team actually shows only one change from the side that played Canterbury, with Hika Elliot replacing Ash Dixon at hooker.

FORM:
Waikato:
Round 5: lost to Wellington 13-29 (a)
Round 6: lost to Canterbury 27-52 (h)
Round 7: beat Tasman 20-19 (h)
Round 8: beat Taranaki 46-10 (a, RS)
Round 9: beat Counties-Manukau 32-28 (a)

Hawke's Bay:
Round 5: lost to Southland 7-35 (a)
Round 6: beat Bay of Plenty 42-41 (h)
Round 7: beat Otago 21-15 (h)
Round 8: lost to Manawatu 7-20 (a)
Round 9: lost to Canterbury 3-44 (h)

Waikato made a huge number of changes from the team that had won the Shield for the Pukekohe match, and burgled a very impressive win. Counties should have locked the match away early but errors and missed chances left the door ajar; when Waikato got a sniff they also got on a roll and turned a 10-25 deficit into a 32-38 win inside 20 minutes. The few remaining veterans were at the heart of the performance, but the many new faces supplied plenty of energy and enthusiasm.

Hawke's Bay was always unlikely to beat Canterbury and after a good initial quarter normal service was resumed. A botched lineout gifted Canterbury an easy try to get started and they added another two before halftime, while the game lost all shape and the spectators lost all interest after the break as Canterbury kept scoring points, the scrums remained a shambles and Hawke's Bay never looked like winning. In the end it was simply a case of how much. Answer: 44-3.

WHO'S HOT: After letting all the regulars get over the Shield win and running out a team that showed 17 changes at Pukekohe (where they still burgled an unlikely win), Waikato has gone back to its top XV for this match. That includes Toby Smith, who has been very solid in the front row with his powerful scrummaging and often dynamic ball-running. He is a reliable guy who will give a good performance. Zack Hohneck was a pest during the Shield challenge, regularly getting in Taranaki faces and then rubbing them in the dirt. Waikato owned the breakdown, and their openside was central to it all. There were a lot of good performers in the Waikato backline but perhaps the most impressive -or most surprising -was Sam Christie at first-five. He hadn't enjoyed the best of years and had been benched for recent games, but came back very strongly with a commanding all-round game that sparked a lot of Waikato's best play.

Hawke's Bay's problems this season can be summed up by looking at the confused week-to-week selection. There are multiple changes every week and a 2012 All Black, Hika Elliot, does not get to start in the biggest matches -he's worn No 16 against both Auckland and Canterbury. He's playing well when given the chance and is one of the best and most reliable Magpie forwards, so what's with the in-and-out selection? To be blunt, it's not as if Hawke's Bay has two hookers of equal calibre available. It goes right across the board; two of the best backs, Andrew Horrell and Gillies Kaka, have filled a variety of jerseys this season and done all they could in any one of them but neither has a settled position or settled combinations to work with. For all the talent available, Hawke's Bay has turned in a poor year and they sit where they do on merit.

WE THINK: If Waikato can recapture half the passion they showed at New Plymouth, they'll do this easily. Too often this season Hawke's Bay has played like a team in disarray and there doesn't seem to be much confidence in the camp either; it's hard to see where they might have the winning of the game. Waikato should have that winning in several areas; one or two will be enough but if they get it all right it could get ugly for the visitors.

TEAMS:
Waikato: 1. Toby Smith, 2. Marcel Cummings-Toone, 3. Ben May, 4. Sam Kilgour, 5. Romana Graham, 6. Matt Vant Leven, 7. Zack Hohneck, 8. Alex Bradley (capt), 9. Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 10. Sam Christie, 11. Joe Webber, 12. Jackson Willison, 13. Save Tokula, 14. Declan O'Donnell, 15. Trent Renata.

Reserves: 16. Vance Elliott, 17 Latu Talakai or Ted Tauroa, 18. Anthony Wise, 19. Rory Grice, 20. Brendon Leonard, 21. Piers Francis, 22. Navi Sikivou.


Hawke's Bay: 1. Brendon Edmonds, 2. Hika Elliot, 3. Peter Borlase, 4. Ross Kennedy, 5. Maselino Paulino, 6. Trent Boswell-Wakefield, 7. Tivaini Fomai, 8. Karl Lowe (capt), 9. Isaac Paewai, 10. Ihaia West, 11. Penikolo Latu, 12. Andrew Horrell, 13. Marvin Karawana, 14. Maritino Nemani, 15. Gillies Kaka.

Reserves: 16. Ash Dixon, 17. Jody Allen, 18. Johan Schoonbee, 19. Adam Bradey, 20. Michael Ruru, 21. Star Timu, 22. Bronson Neera.

It will rain, but Mooloos will not give up the ranfurly shioeld as they have nothing else to play for.
Hawkes bay could get themselves out of relegation trouble if they win. But there is no chance of that happening. if the rain holds off I would have said Mooloos by 28. But it won't so backs will not get to run riot. Waikato forwards will do enough and win by 21

Preview: Wellington v Taranaki

For Taranaki to get a home semi, they will need to do something no other Taranaki team has ever done - win a championship match at Wellington. They will also need to score four tries, while a win by Wellington will be good enough to have them back home in a week's time.

VENUE & TIME: Westpac Stadium, Wellington, Sunday October 14 @ 1435

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 167; Wellington 116, Taranaki 45, drawn 5, abandoned 1.

LAST TIME: July 16, 2011 (New Plymouth) - Taranaki 5-23 Wellington.

WALKING WOUNDED: Wellington did nothing more than tinker with their side; Genesis Mamea and Lima Sopoaga are on the bench with Ardie Savea moving to No 8 and Tim Bateman to first-five. Essentially, though, it remains the usual team. Although still a bit jet-lagged, Beauden Barrett was released by the All Blacks to play this game and Colin Cooper had no hesitation about getting him into the team. Taranaki's forward changes were nothing more than moving players from the run-on XV to the bench and vice versa - although the demotion of regular Craig Clarks was a surprise - but the backline also has Chris Smylie and Andre Taylor back from injury.

FORM:
Wellington:
Round 5: beat Waikato 29-13 (h)
Round 6: lost to Auckland 30-43 (a)
Round 7: beat Bay of Plenty 36-26 (a)
Round 8: beat North Harbour 34-28 (h)
Round 9: beat Otago 49-22 (a)

Taranaki:
Round 5: lost to Auckland 32-43 (a)
Round 6: beat Northland 32-31 (a)
Round 7: beat Manawatu 59-18 (h, RS)
Round 8: lost to Waikato 10-46 (h, RS)
Round 9: beat Southland 47-18 (a)

Wellington hit Forsyth Barr Stadium running and soon had Otago in all kinds of trouble; by halftime the score was 35-10 and the game was over. It was an impressive 40 minutes from the Lions, who were quick to pounce on any errors and then clinical in the way they turned them into points. Every try was converted, so nothing was left lying around on the tee either. While the second half was not so dominant, the damage had been done a lot earlier and Wellington cruised home.

Taranaki had to do it hard at Invercargill, where a lacklustre first half saw Southland take a 15-6 lead into the sheds. Frazier Climo kept his side in contact with some excellent goal-kicking and a try before Jayden Hayward (a replacement in this match) scored a brilliant solo try from halfway to turn the game. After that Taranaki seemed to find their confidence and the score quickly mounted, although the final margin was probably a little flattering.

WHO'S HOT: A lot of Wellington players are going well at the moment with few better than skipper Jeremy Thrush, who just keeps on keeping on. He is reliable at the lineout, a strong ball-carrier, happy to knock others around at the breakdown and, at times, a real pest when the opposition has the ball - all in all, just what you want from a lock. Frae Wilson has set the line moving nicely throughout his first full season and would have to be happy with his work; he has been good in all areas. Matt Proctor, who has been strong through his first season, bagged a well-taken hat-trick last week and he had to do a fair bit of work for each try. In a team of big-name stars and others who have commanded more headline space, Proctor has enjoyed a good season and is more than an occasional threat.

Chris King may not have intended to play a full season this year, but Taranaki has received a full season's effort from the veteran prop. He is, as ever, strong in the scrum, reliable in those dark and nasty places under the big lineout men and a regular at ruck time. A true forward's forward, he has had a good year. Beauden Barrett's return will be a huge plus for Taranaki, who have missed his guidance while he has been away. As well as his solid boot, there is the ever-present danger he poses when he runs at the line and his good (and still improving) tactical appreciation. Jayden Hayward is almost taken as a given in the Taranaki midfield, but his worth to the team was underlined by their struggles before he came onto the field last week. Once back in his familiar role, Taranaki quickly got on a roll and the whole game changed in moments.

WE THINK: Both sides, obviously, have an eye on the home semi-final but they can't let that distract them from winning the match. It's harder for Taranaki, as they need a bonus point as well, but trying to get four tries without paying attention to the basics will not work. Wellington is very good on its day and never bad, and one of those teams that can punish sides in moments. They also have a long history of success at home against Taranaki, something we feel will continue this week.

TEAMS:
Wellington: 1. Reg Goodes, 2. Dane Coles, 3. Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen, 4. Jeremy Thrush (capt), 5. Ross Filipo, 6. Mark Reddish, 7. Scott Fuglistaller, 8. Ardie Savea, 9. Frae Wilson, 10. Tim Bateman, 11. Jason Woodward, 12. Shaun Treeby, 13. Alipate Leiua, 14. Matt Proctor, 15. Charlie Ngatai.

Reserves: 16. Motu Matu'u, 17. Eric Sione, 18. Lua Lokotui, 19. Genesis Mamea, 20. Kayne Hammington, 21. Lima Sopoaga, 22. Ambrose Curtis.

Taranaki: 1. Chris King, 2. Timo Tutavaha, 3. Michael Bent, 4. James Broadhurst, 5. Jason Eaton (capt), 6. Jarrad Hoeata, 7. Kane Barrett, 8. Blade Thomson, 9. Chris Smylie, 10. Beauden Barrett, 11. Frazier Climo, 12. Jayden Hayward, 13. Kurt Baker, 14. Jackson Ormond, 15. Andre Taylor.

Reserves: 16. Laurence Corlett, 17. Carl Carmichael, 18. Craig Clarke, 19. Bernie Hall, 20. Jamison Gibson-Park, 21. James Marshall, 22. Seta Tamanivalu.

REFEREE: Bryce Lawrence

I have to agree with ITM cup. co.nz website writer.

If Wellington win they host Auckland in the 2 v 3 semifinal next weekend but if they lose they will travel south to tackle Canterbury in the 1 v 4.
Those permutations are based on Canterbury beating Bay of Plenty at home tomorrow, a most likely outcome.This should be enough to motivate the Lions.
Weather will be great so backs can move. This will be the Naki's best chance.
Barrett is a strong player and will cause trouble for Lions. But in the end Lions will win by 10

Preview: Canterbury v BOP

Canterbury goes into this match knowing that a bonus point win will, regardless of any other results, ensure they finish first in the round-robin. By kickoff Bay of Plenty will know whether they're safe in the Premiership for another year of they have to find a way to beat a hot Canterbury side to survive.

VENUE & TIME: AMI Stadium, Addington, Sunday October 14 @ 1635

HEAD TO HEAD: Played 32; Canterbury 22, Bay of Plenty 8, drawn 2.

LAST TIME: August 23, 2011 (Mt Maunganui) - Bay of Plenty 35-31 Canterbury.

WALKING WOUNDED: Canterbury has made two forced changes in the pack, with Wyatt Crockett and Luke Katene forced to miss this match. Ryan Crotty returns to the midfield, which has prompted a shuffle in the outside backs, but otherwise this is the same formidable Canterbury team that has been chewing up opponents over the last month. Bay of Plenty is missing some regulars this week, with the most notable absentee being Lelia Masaga, who has been battling for a while. Josh Hohneck and Mafi Kefu are others who will not play, and a relatively new tight five has a huge job on its hands; if you leave Leon Power out of it, the other four have played 26 ITM Cup matches between them.

FORM:
Canterbury:
Round 5: lost to Taranaki 9-18 (a, RS)
Round 6: beat Waikato 52-27 (a)
Round 7: beat Southland 84-0 (h)
Round 8: beat Northland 56-11 (a)
Round 9: beat Hawke's Bay 44-3 (a)

Bay of Plenty:
Round 5: beat Auckland 37-16 (h)
Round 6: lost to Hawke's Bay 41-42 (a)
Round 7: lost to Wellington 26-36 (h)
Round 8: beat Northland 31-19 (h)
Round 9: lost to Tasman 3-17 (a)

Hawke's Bay was the latest victim to be fed through the Canterbury mincer, as the Magpies could never find an answer to a team that is becoming more efficient by the week. The game was nothing special, as both teams made too many handling errors and the scrums were a blight on the whole match; it took far too long to pack them and then, often, they were a mess. When Canterbury did put a few phases together they generally scored, and the result was decided by halftime.

Bay of Plenty did itself no favours with a defeat at Nelson, and only escaped the weekend in sixth place when Hawke's Bay lost to Manawatu. It was an insipid effort from the Steamers, who were beaten at the breakdown for one of the rare times this season and heavily penalised, especially in the first half. They did create chances but faulty handling hurt, especially once in the first half when a good pass was grassed with the line wide open, and they never recovered from that.

WHO'S HOT: Pick a number from 1 to 15 in the Canterbury team, and you'll find a hot hand. Dominic Bird is starting to get into his stride in the first-class game now, and that's a big stride. He is solid at the lineout - which is perhaps the only problem area for Canterbury - and quick around the field for a big bloke. While the Canterbury halfbacks have been sharing time all season, things still look a little snappier when Andy Ellis is on the park. Perhaps his experience allows him to be more demanding, or his reads are just that touch quicker, but the backline generally hums along when he's in the game. The return of Ryan Crotty will only compound Bay of Plenty's troubles, since Canterbury has been piling up tries for a month (31 in four matches) and things happen when Crotty is around. In a team where everyone needs careful watching, he is still one of the biggest threats.

Bay of Plenty goes into the match with a very inexperienced tight five, so youngsters like hooker Nathan Harris will be facing by far the hardest test of their careers. Harris has had his issues this year but has survived them all, and will be asked to find a huge effort this week. Accuracy, especially at the set piece, will be paramount. Tanerau Latimer has been one of the best players in the whole competition, with a huge work-rate and excellent accuracy all season. He can't be asked to put any more on the track - a bloke can only go to 100 percent - so he will be asked to do it all again. Lance MacDonald is one of the Bay's better strike weapons this year and he has picked up some nifty tries, but he's likely to see some tough defensive situations this year; the left wing is a favourite attacking avenue for Canterbury. MacDonald is capable on defence, which he'll need to be on Sunday.

WE THINK: Canterbury won't lose this game. It's pretty simple really - they're on fire at the moment and nobody has even threatened them in the last month. To be fair, they haven't played anyone above fifth in the Premiership in that time but nothing changes this week as they face Bay of Plenty, and the red-and-blacks have wasted the other four. Canterbury should have it under control by halftime, and the necessary bonus point in the bank long before the end.

TEAMS:
Canterbury: 1. Joe Moody, 2. Ben Funnell, 3. Paea Fa'anunu, 4. Joel Everson, 5. Dominic Bird, 6. George Whitelock (capt), 7. Matt Todd, 8. Nasi Manu, 9. Andy Ellis, 10. Tyler Bleyendaal, 11. Johnny McNicholl, 12. Ryan Crotty, 13. Robbie Fruean, 14. Adam Whitelock, 15. Tom Taylor.

Reserves: 16. Codie Taylor, 17. Andrew Olorenshaw, 18. Luke Whitelock, 19. Jed Brown, 20. Willi Heinz, 21. Telusa Veainu, 22. Stephen Gee.


Bay of Plenty: 1. Greg Pleasants-Tate, 2. Nathan Harris, 3. Mike Kainga, 4. Keepa Mewett, 5. Leon Power, 6. Dan Goodwin, 7. Tanerau Latimer (capt), 8. Carl Axtens, 9. Jamie Nutbrown, 10. Chris Noakes, 11. Jack Wilson, 12. Phil Burleigh, 13. Kendrick Lynn, 14. Lance MacDonald, 15. Nick McCashin.

Reserves: 16. John Pareanga, 17. Tristan Moran, 18. Pingi Tala'apitaga, 19. Matt Clutterbuck, 20. Curtis van der Heyden, 21. Simon Rolleston, 22. Maru Henry.

Pete says. Expect Cantab to change out the whole bench before end of game once they are sufficiently far ahead and have secured bonus point.
After watching Lions currently demolishing Taranaki, I would expect they would relish playing them at home rather than Auckland.
If cantab fail to get bonus point then Lions head the group and play Naki again in play offs and one shouldn't expect much of a different result than tonight.
Cantab by at least the same margin as Lions against Naki. Bay have nothing to lose so may throw ball around, and may make a fight, however I wouldn't bank on it, as no one wants to get hurt right at end of season. Cantab by 40