There are 2 games this weekend in Super15. They are both from Aussie conference.
They are running one weekend ahead of the the rest of tournament because of the interruption when the LIONS tour begins.
The 2013 British & Irish Lions tour heads back to Australia after a
gap of 12 years and will visit many of the same places as the original
Lions did way back in 1888. Those first Lions were in Melbourne to enjoy
the centenary celebrations of the settlement of Australia in 1788.
There were around three million people living in Australia then compared
to today's population of around 23 million.
1st game June 5 vs Waratahs.
They actually play a game vs Baah Baahs in Hong Kong on June 1.
Australian Conference quick preview.
The ‘unknown unknowns’ around the British and Irish Lions Series, both in terms of the impact on Super Rugby squads in the lead-up, and the possibly injury fall-out in the aftermath, makes the Australian conference something of a lottery.
To the point where I’m not sure we’ll see two Australian finalists in 2013.
I think most pundits have it right so far tipping the Reds and Brumbies to fight it out for top spot, and I expect them to be the top two in the Australian conference, but again in no particular order.
For both teams, the first month to six weeks will have a big bearing. The Reds cannot sit back and wait for the return of Will Genia, and must start securing competition points from the outset. Similarly, the Brumbies can’t take their time to work out their preferred style of play in 2013.
Both teams to be firing from the start, which is going to difficult, given they play each other in round one, and they also need to maximise their returns when playing the other Australian teams.
All eyes are focused and pens are poised on the performance of the Waratahs. If Michael Cheika is able to achieve even half of what he’s said he wants to, the flood of commentary and push for sainthood could become unbearable.
That said, just as New Zealand needs a strong Blues, Australian rugby needs a strong Waratahs. In the toughest sporting market in Australia, there is no worse sight than a quarter-full Sydney Football Stadium. ‘Tahs fans have to want to come to the rugby.
I expect improvement from both the Melbourne Rebels and Western Force, but they’re both probably a few years off finals calculations. Of the two, the Rebels are well equipped to give the ‘Tahs a fright, and on their day, they’re capable of beating anyone.
A pass mark this year would be for both to be playing attractive rugby, drawing big crowds in Melbourne and Perth respectively, and doing Australian rugby a favour by knocking off some inter-conference heavyweights.
This courtesy of the Roar.com.au
Western force
The boat that is the Western Force was properly rocked during the off-season. Upper management apparently decided enough was enough and opted to relaunch the struggling franchise.
Former Wallaby, Michael Foley, was appointed as head coach and they made a shrewd move by also hiring David Wessels, a top-notch defence coach. To me Foley’s appointment was quite ironic if you take into account the disastrous season he just had at the Waratahs. Nevertheless, he has a tremendous track record otherwise.
Other changes saw the release of many players, but also the loss of some key playmakers – backs Cameron Shepherd and Napolioni Nalaga left for Europe, whilst the Rebels contracted centre Rory Sidey. The retirement of Nathan Sharpe came as no surprise, and combined with David Pocock opting to move to the Brumbies, created a gaping hole.
Foley’s talent search resulted in the signing of accomplished halfback Alby Mathews and a few Super Rugby novices like flanker Chris Alcock, midfielder Jayden Hayward and fly-half Sias Ebersohn – hopefully Sias left his old kicking boots in Bloemfontein.
Also adding strength to the team are the welcome return of Sam Norton-Knight and Hugh McMeniman, who could be rather inspirational if he manages to stay injury free and on the pitch long enough.
There will be some fierce competition in the front row with Tetera Faulkner and Salesi Manu to put pressure on Pek Cowan, Kieran Longbottom and Salesi Ma’afu. Newfound duo Angus Cottrell and Lachlan McCaffrey will also be keeping regulars Richard Brown, Matt Hodgson and Ben McCalman honest around the fringes. The right combinations are going to be key, or else Foley will be eating his words after boasting to have the best back-row in the competition.
Due to the departure of two captains, the Force have handed the reigns to Matt Hodgson – I suppose that’s if he can first cement his place in the starting fifteen.
At this stage, it is difficult to estimate how well the backline will perform, but I’d definitely keep my eye on Nick Cummins who’s really came into his own this past season. The Honey Badger had a great 2012 and with sufficient support from the new recruits, he might be able to convert more of his trademark line breaks into tries.
Even though Will Tupou experienced a very quiet first season, he survived the switch from league and is probably itching to show his true worth. I for one am really looking forward to seeing what he’s capable of.
To top off their attempted resurrection, the Force will be unveiling their new home ground, the vastly improved nib Stadium on 23 March against the Cheetahs. With more than 10,000 season tickets already sold, it is evident that the fans are as excited and optimistic as the players and coaching staff. Apparently we are to expect a more attractive and fun game, but the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.
The pre-season fixtures against the Brumbies and a select Tonga XV will be a stern test for this unpredictable side and perhaps give some insight into their future. Getting off to a good start will not be easy as their first four matches of Super Rugby are played away from home; only time will tell whether this will make or break them.
I reckon they’ll have another frustrating season with a mountain just too big to climb. My prediction for the Western Force is last place on the Australian log and 13th overall.
Here’s a question for you. Will Sias Ebersohn’s move to the Force revive his career or will he end up like former Cheetah teammate Sarel Pretorius did at the Waratahs and spend most of his time on the sideline?
Waratahs
The Brisbane-based Waratahs are another team that will try to pick up the pieces and start rebuilding after a shockingly poor 2012.
It’s a worrying fact that they’ve almost had a coach a year since the departure of Ewen McKenzie at the end of 2008 when they made it to the final. Michael Cheika was appointed as head coach to replace Michael Foley who left to take the reign at the Western Force.
Cheika has been very tight-lipped about the captaincy, apparently waiting to see who will step up and earn the respect for the role. My money was on Benn Robinson who has made his desire very clear, but the latest news from the camp revealed that the responsibility to lead the Waratahs in their first pre-season friendly against the Rebels had fallen on the shoulders of scrumhalf Brendan McKibbin.
The announcement of their 2013 squad revealed the loss of only a few prominent players and some exiting new signings. The Waratahs managed to poach outstanding open-side flanker Michael Hooper from the Brumbies as well as contracting talented speedster Israel Folau who switched from Rugby League to Aussie Rules and now wants to play Super Rugby. Reportedly, Rocky Elsom had been released in order to get himself fit and healthy after a lengthy run with injuries.
I’m sure that they’ll depend largely on Berrick Barnes’ skill to dictate games with the boot as well as front-foot ball via guys like Tatafu Polota-Nau, Dave Dennis, Sitaleki Timani and Michael Hooper. A close eye should also be kept on the nippy little Brendan McKibbin around the fringes.
It is hard to understand why they fell apart so badly if you add the names in the backline to the above. I mean, Adam-Ashley Cooper, Rob Horne, Drew Mitchell – those are world-class performers. Maybe their promise to take a more attacking approach this season will allow for some sparks and entertaining matches.
After already getting the news that hooker Damien Fitzpatrick would probably miss most of the Super Rugby season after suffering a setback to the knee injury that has already kept him off the field for a year, the Waratahs were dealt another blow. The ankle injury Kane Douglas picked up in a touch rugby match played during the Wallabys’ logistics training camp left coach Michael Cheika fuming as the lock will be sidelined for at least half of their pre-season training.
With international capped players in every position, one can by no means say that the team is inexperienced. To me they lack imagination and confidence, none of which can be turned around in such a short space of time; but I don’t think they’ll just give away any points.It pains me to say it, but I don’t think they’re going to be up to scratch this year either. My prediction for the Tahs is a 12th place finish.
Rebels
This will be the Rebels’ third season of Super Rugby and by winning only seven matches in the past two years, it’s clear that they haven’t made an impact yet. At least head coach Damien Hill decided to stick around for another year and this type of stability might just see them make it in the long run.
Where they previously shopped for recognized names, they were rather moderate this time around and opted to draw in young talent from far and wide. The recruitment of experienced Reds flanker, Scott Higginbotham, got everybody to sit up straight, for in combination with Luke Jones and captain Gareth Delve, the trio could make quite a nuisance of themselves.
With Stirling Mortlock and Adam Freier having moved behind the scenes and the loss of crowd favorites Mark Gerard and Julian Huxley, one might wonder if they haven’t lost too much experience. However, I think getting Rory Sidey on board will strengthen the midfield considerably and I can’t want to see him and the likes of Kurtley Beale and Cooper Vuna run off an in-form and injury free James O’Connor.
If the Rebels can create pressure up front and get momentum going, we might see some magic in the backline. The tight five are a bit light in experience and it will take some doing to keep them calm in order to grind out the hard yards. Composure will be of the utmost importance and we all saw what they could do when they completely surprised the Crusaders last year.
Although I suspect that they might ruffle a few feathers this year, I just don’t see them playing consistently enough to compete with the big guns yet.
My prediction for the Melbourne Rebels is an 11th place finish.
From The Roar
Reds
The Queensland Reds should remain top of the Australian Super Rugby conference for most of the year, with no other Australian teams quite reaching that ‘elite’ status yet. However, Australia’s best Super Rugby title hope could win another championship if Quade Cooper can leave behind his unwanted baggage and resume the form that saw him the obvious first choice at flyhalf for the Wallabies in season 2011. Also crucial to the Reds’ relevancy this year will be the returns of Will Genia and James Horwill. Both are set to return during the season, Horwill sooner than Genia. If both fail to regain top form the banana benders may be in a bit of trouble. Unfortunately the loss of Wallaby back-rower Scott Higginbotham is another major disappointment, and players such as Liam Gill will have to step up to fill the void. All in all, it should be an interesting season for the tumultuous Reds.
Prediction: fifth (first in conference)
Brumbies
The Brumbies will look to follow up their ultimate choke in 2012 with a finals appearance in 2013. They have all the tools to do so, especially considering the presence of the new arrival, Wallaby breakdown king David Pocock. The nation’s capital let out a collective sigh when Wallaby rookie of the year Michael Hooper returned home to NSW to play with the Waratahs. But not for long, as the lineage of great Brumbies sevens continued as they signed David Pocock from the Western Force.
Pocock is a master at the breakdown and should create much more phase play and many more opportunities to score. The Brumbies should make Pocock a better player also, as the offensive weapons they possess aren’t exactly rivalled by his old side the Force’s. A full season for Christian Lealiifano will also work wonders, as he looked a surefire first-choice 10 for the Wallabies until he went down mid-season.
Other rising stars returning include Sam Carter, Scott Fardy, Zack Holmes, Jesse Mogg, Joseph Tomane, and I don’t have enough space to mention everyone. They are all another year older, and their further integration with veterans such as Ben Alexander and Stephen Moore should create a great atmosphere around the club.
Prediction: seventh (second in conference)
Waratahs
This off-season, the Waratahs had as many disappointing departures as they did encouraging additions. The top recruit would go to either hometown hero Michael Hooper, Wallaby rookie of the year, Israel Folau, the tremendously talented tri-coder, or head coach Michael Cheika, who has previously experienced success with Leinster, winning the 2009 Heineken Cup. All three have enormous potential and futures with the club. However, the Waratahs did lose plenty of good players this off-season, with Chris Alcock, Rocky Elsom and Daniel Halangahu just a few of them.
How well the Waratahs’ youth do this season will be part-and-parcel of how many games they win. Brendan McKibbin wasn’t given captaincy of the side, and the Waratahs will be hopeful he can continue his good form into 2013 and can lead by example on the pitch. There’s no doubt the Waratahs have a good group of players, with Wallabies future and present scattered through the forwards and the backs.
What Michael Cheika will need to help them do this year is forge an identity, preferably one that uses their young, quick, up-tempo style to their best advantage. If he can do that, there’s no reason the Waratahs can’t contend right now. Prediction: eighth (third in conference)
Rebels
Despite the two big Wallaby stars on hand, James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale, the Rebels’ squad has deteriorated from their inaugural incarnation. They have lost many high-profile names such as Julian Huxley, Mark Gerrard, and even Stirling Mortlock, whose contribution will be missed. Another one missing is Cooper Vuna, who first cracked the Wallaby squad last year. His shoulder injury is expected to keep him out for the year. However, a welcome in will be Wallaby eighthman Scott Higginbotham from the Reds. He can hope to bolster the Rebels’ pack, and work in union with players such as Gareth Delve and Cadeyrn Neville to form the basis for a potentially very damaging running forwards squad. Another decisive factor for the Rebels’ success will be how well new leaders stand up after the loss of many years of Super and Test rugby. If James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale, two of the bigger stars around the club, can become quality leaders as well as play the style of rugby they were brought in to play, then the young Rebels may be able to shock a few in 2013.
Prediction: 10th (fourth in conference)
Force
Let’s face it: the Western Force is an all-round depressing rugby club.
Depressing to talk about, depressing to watch play, and during this off-season, it was equally if not more depressing to watch them squirm. The Force lost yet another franchise player this off-season, with one-man team David Pocock taking his talents to the nation’s capital. Last year it was James O’Connor, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that not many stars want to pay in the glitz and glamour of rugby haven Perth. The Force will need to solve this problem quickly by creating a positive, reputable attitude, solid in their convictions and sure of their squad.
And while it may take a while, especially to get some wins on the board, the Western Force may be able to entice some Test players to their squad with a good, esteemed attitude. And no one counts out the Force from breeding their own. Players such as local product Kyle Godwin are said to be future Wallabies, and after being elevated from the extended playing squad to the senior playing squad, the Force will definitely be looking to get plenty of games in him. However, it will be a long road to the finals for the struggling Force. And I dread to think of where that road will take them this season
Prediction: 14th (fifth in conference)
Orrible Punt
Brumbies
2012 season – 7th – Won 5/8 at home by 24-19 and 5/8 away by 27-23
The Brumbies, who won 2 and lost 3 finals between 1997-2004, were another of the sides (like the Hurricanes) that were supposed to struggle in 2012. As several coaches have discovered to their cost, ‘player-power’ is a reality in Canberra and the Brumbies are no strangers to getting rid of a coach before their contract expires. World Cup winner and 2-time IRB coach of the year Jake White did a great job of gelling a collection of willing rookies and senior players and perhaps just as crucially, a successful coaching team with highly respected Canberra men in Laurie Fisher and Stephen Larkham.
The side sat 5 points clear of their conference with 1 game remaining, but lost 16-30 at home to the Blues in the final match, which saw the Reds pip them to a post –season berth. Having come so close it has to be seen as blown opportunity, but overall they exceeded expectations.
Unsurprisingly given White’s background, many pundits picked up on the fact that the 2012 Brumbies style of play was at times in the pattern of South African rugby. Signing a big lock in 20 year old, former Lion Etienne Oosthuizen adds a bit of that traditional power to the side.
The Brumbies 10 wins did come against sides ranked 8th or below in the table and they certainly profited from the Reds injury crisis that saw them struggle in the 1st half of the season. On the other hand, they were not been beaten by more than 7 points in their losses against the top 7 sides.
They may have had a preferable schedule last season compared to certain other sides (with no Stormers or Crusaders to play), but still picked up more wins than expected.
There was a steel in the team and they possessed the 2nd best defence, conceding 331 points. Resilience was also shown after losing Toomua and Lealiifano. Normally the loss of a player of Hooper’s calibre would be lamented but they are replacing him with the world class Pocock. The return of Clyde Rathbone was a surprise, but with a record of 8 tries in 26 Tests and 15 in 49 Brumbies appearances he is going to have the respect of his peers. Sometimes these comebacks after retirement go awry, but having scored a couple in the warm up games and impressed, there is every chance his story is going to be mentioned a lot in 2013.
A strange trend that may prove useful for betting this season was that 7/8 home games saw 1st half highest scoring and 7/8 away games saw 2nd half highest scoring.
Record against non-conference opposition: won 1/8 away to Sharks, won 4/8 away to Stormers, won 3/8 away to Highlanders, won 3/10 away to Blues, won 7/8 home to Bulls, won 6/9 home to Crusaders, won 6/10 home to Hurricanes.
Players out:
Jerry Yanuyanutawa, Anthony Hegarty, Ben Hand, Michael Hooper, Kimami Situati, Cam Crawford
Players In:
Etienne Oosthuizen, David Pocock, Clyde Rathbone
Force
2012 season – 14th – Won 2/8 games at home by an average score of 20-25 and 1/8 away games by 18-31
The Force finished 7th or 8th between 2007-9 and 14th,13th,12th in 2006,2010 and 2011.
With just 3 wins last season and 9 defeats in their last 10 games, they recorded another low placing, just 2 points above the Lions.
The Western Australian expansion team have long suffered from having their shining lights poached by other Australian sides, see Matt Giteau, Drew Mitchell, James O’Connor, David Pocock etc. Queenslander and head coach Richard Graham announced he would be joining the Reds in the 2013 season and was then removed from his duties immediately by the Force, so it’s not just the players that the side have difficulty in retaining.
With inaugural captain Nathan Sharpe hanging up his boots at the end of the season, the fore-mentioned coaching change and a very public failure to sign Will Genia – there hasn’t been much to shout about in Perth. The fallout with Willie Ripia before the 2012 season started meant the team were not only a player down but also very likely dealing with team morale issues.
It would have been expected that Napolioni Nalaga would contribute more than 2 tries last season and he has returned to Clermont. When you look at the stats for the Force, it’s clear how important Sharpe and Pocock were to the team. The lock carried 156 times and won 84 lineouts whereas the flanker has 206 tackles, 125 runs, 36 pick and drives.
Attempts were made to lure Michael Cheika but instead it is Michael Foley looking to reignite the Perth side, along with Steve Meehan. There are interesting selection options at scrum-half with Brett Sheehan / Alby Mathewson and at flyhalf with Sias Ebersohn / Kyle Godwin. The issue may be out wide, where bar the ‘honey badger’ Nick Cummins there doesn’t look to be too many players capable of breaking the gain line. It may also take time for the backline recruits to settle, which could be tough given they begin with 4 away matches.
The main angle for betting on Force games last season revolved around the halves. They trailed at halftime in 14/16 matches and conceded 43 tries in the opening 60 minutes of games. However they outscored teams in 9/16 matches after the break , scoring 22 of their 30 tries then and only conceding 6 tries in the last quarter. Looking back over their short history, they’ve not yet had a season where they’ve scored more tries in the 1st half than 2nd yet and in the 2 of the last 3 tournaments, over 70% of their scores came in the final 40 minutes.
Record against non-conference opposition: won 2/2 at home to Cheetahs, won ¼ at home to Crusaders, won 1/3 at home to Sharks, won ½ at home to Highlanders, won 1/3 away to Bulls, won 0/4 away to Hurricanes, won 0/2 away to Chiefs
Players Out:
Salesi Manu, Ruan Smith, Elvis Taione, Oliver Atkins, Nathan Sharpe, Anare Kolivau, David Pocock, Josh Holmes, Justin Turner, Ben Seymour, James Stannard, Gene Fairbanks, Rory Sidey, Napoioni Nalaga, Jordan Rapana, Samu Wara, David Harvey, Cameron Shepherd
Players In:
Heath Tessmann, Chris Alcock, Hugh McMeniman, Alby Mathewson, Sias Ebersohn, Jayden Hayward, Junior Rasolea, Chris Tuatara-Morrison, Ed Stubbs, Sam Norton-Knight
Rebels
2012 season – 13th – Won 3/8 at home by 26-30 and 1/8 away by 19-35.
The Rebels won 3 games in 2011 and with an average score of 18-36. Last season they won 4 matches and the average score was 23-33 so there was progress. The performances at home saw the Crusaders bested, the Bulls given a scare and a rate of 26-30 (up from 20-33 in 2011) but on the road, wins were still hard to pick up. 2011 saw the Rebels average 15-38 with just a win over the Force whereas last year it was 19-36 with the Force the sole victims again. The fact that the defence conceded 50 less points from 2011 (520 down from 570) was also a small sign that the team may be heading in the right direction.
If you were looking for trends then 11/16 of their matches saw the 1st half as highest scoring and their games against non-conference teams leaned towards being high scoring, with an average of 63 points. This dropped to 48 when just looking at their Australian conference clashes.
Similar to the Force, their stats for the final 20 minutes of games were pretty good – scoring 32% of their tries then and only conceding 15% (3rd best percentage in the league). The obvious point would be that like the Force, this may have had a lot to do with the fact that games were already decided by that point and indeed, they conceded over 30 tries between 21-60 minutes in matches over the season.
With the retirement of Stirling Mortlock and departure of Julian Huxley, Mark Gerrard, Adam Freier, Alister Campbell and others – the side will have a younger feel about it. There are opportunities for new players to step into the gaps left by those founding players. In Kurtley Beale, James O’Connor and Scott Higginbotham they have some Wallaby star power and Damien Hill will be hoping his new loose forward can develop a playing relationship with those creators, similar to the one he had with Genia at the Reds. Hill will also be hoping that the first 2 players mentioned are in the headlines for the right reasons rather than for off-field incidents.
Danny Cipriani received plenty of attention when he moved to Melbourne but it has been former Gloucester forward, Gareth Delve, that has had the far greater influence on the team. He been named captain and certainly set an example last year, making 189 tackles. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him being considered for a Lions place or call up if there is injury.
Given their poor away record so far, of only 2 wins from 16 attempts (both against the Force), it is going to be important to start strongly against the Force in round 1 and in the other home matches. I don’t seem them troubling the Brumbies, Reds and ‘Tahs for the conference but they should secure 4th in the group.
Record against non-conference opposition: lost 1/1 away to Cheetahs, lost 1/1 away to Blues, lost 1/1 home to Stormers, lost 1/1 home to Highlanders
Players out:
Rodney Blake, Jono Owen, Adam Freier, Luke Holmes, Heath Tessmann, Adam Byrnes, Alister Campbell, Tom Chamberlain, Ryan Hodson, Michael Lipman, Hugh Perrett, Danny Cipriani, James Hilgendorf, Lloyd Johansson, Stirling Mortlock, Mark Gerrard, Julian Huxley
Players In:
Shota Hurie, Chris Thomson, Scott Fuglistaller, Scott Higginbotham, Rory Sidey, Kimami Sitauti, Angus Roberts, Alex Rokobaro, Jason Woodward
Reds
2012 season – 3rd – Won 7/8 at home by 26-17 and 4/8 away by 19-26
The Reds picked up finishes of between 10-14th in the seasons 2004-9. Ewen McKenzie took them to a 5th place finish in 2010 and a successful final the following year – playing an attractive brand of rugby along the way.
The 2012 season was almost derailed by a number of injuries to playmakers and speculation over Genia’s future (it’s no co-incidence that his form improved greatly when the matter was resolved). A narrow 11-6 home win over the Rebels was followed by a 3 game away trip to the Sharks, Bulls and Force that saw 133 points conceded. The Reds averaged a score of 27-18 in 2011 but that changed to 22-22 last season – although the last 5 games did see it rise to 28-18. The recovery after the early away tour saw 7 wins from 9 games with the turning point being the win over the Chiefs, when they overcame a 8-22 deficit to win 42-27.
The team were quick starters in matches, scoring first try in 13/16 games and reaching 10 points quickest in 12/16 contests. They only conceded 3 of their 39 tries in the opening 20 minutes of games and scored 92% of their tries in the opening 60 minutes, with 42% coming in the 20 minutes after halftime.
Looking at player movements, only Jono Owen has been brought in, while 8 players have left. It may be that the Reds are happy with the core group they have and certainly the likes of Cooper ,Genia, Ioane, Horwill and Gill etc make for a very strong first choice XV. However last season showed what happens when injuries hit and there is also the addition of Lions distractions now.
Record against non-conference opposition: won 3/7 home to Hurricanes, won 8/9 home to Bulls, won 7/9 home to Blues, won 6/9 home to Sharks, won 0/7 away to Highlanders, won 4/9 away to Chiefs, won ¼ away to Cheetahs, won 2/7 away to Stormers.
Players Out:
Guy Shepherdson, Blake Enever, Van Humphries, Jarrad Butler, Scott Higginbotham, Sam Lane, Dallan Murphy, Joelin Rapana, Nathan Eyres-Brown, Peter Hynes.
Players In:
Jono Owen
Waratahs
2012 season – 11th – Won 2/8 at home by 24-27 and 2/8 away by 20-24
The Waratahs lost a qualifying final to the Blues in 2011 after finishing 5th and both sides went on to disappoint in the 2012 season. From 2002 onwards the ‘Tahs finished outside of the top 5 only twice. The 11 losses last year surpassed the 9 defeats from 13 games in 2007. In the previous 4 seasons, the New South Wales side had only lost 17 of 57 games so not many would have predicted the slump.
The injuries to Drew Mitchell, Lachie Turner, Rocky Elsom and Dan Vickerman may have robbed the side of senior players but the issues (like at the Blues) seemed to go deeper than that. The Sydney-based media were clearly not happy with certain officials at the team and the coach looked to be on borrowed time.
Michael Foley was actually reappointed for 1 more year, after he submitted that the poor performances of his players could be explained by fatigue from an excessive workload (World Cup duties / International duty). That didn’t last long and after chairman Ed Zemancheff quit his role in July, Foley soon followed and ended up signing a 3 year deal with the Force.
That left the door open for Michael Cheika to join, having also been linked with the job in Perth. Bringing experience from both Leinster and Stade Francais, as well as an understanding of the Sydney rugby scene – having played over 300 games for Randwick, he said in September:
“My immediate goal is to establish our identity loud and clear, inside and outside of the team; who we are, how we are going to play the game and what we are prepared to do to earn the respect of our teammates, our supporters and our competitors, as individuals and as a team.”
8 of the 11 losses last season came by less than 6 points and 3 of them by a single point. Games are of course decided by small margins, but more often than not, they failed at the basics – be it restarts, handling errors, or game management. More simply, they didn’t look like a team that knew how to win games. The Waratahs only outscored teams in the 2nd half twice and even then, one of those games was still lost.
There were stories that senior players requested lighter training at the start of 2012 with the belief that it would help the team in the latter stages of the competition. Foley later acknowledged this was an error and I can’t see Cheika repeating the policy. If anything it will be a reversal and the players will be worked harder than usual.
Michael Hooper is going to be an excellent addition to a very competitive pack but it’s the former league and AFL man – Israel Folau who will be the focus of the media. He scored 36 tries in 52 games for the Storm and 37 in 38 Broncos matches, along with 5 in 7 for Australia and 5 in 5 for Queensland in Origin footy. His impact in preseason suggests he is going to receive comparison to Sonny Bill Williams rather than say Willie Mason on the League to Union convert scale.
It’s clear the Waratahs management desire more fans through the gates and it is even rumoured that Cheika’s contract is incentivised by supporter numbers rather than the traditional win / loss ratio. If Folau, Betham, Mitchell et al are provided with some quick ball from what is close to being the Wallaby pack then I’d expect attendances to increase and the win rate to shoot up.
Record against non-conference opposition: won 2/8 away to Hurricanes, won 2/9 away to Bulls, won 1/11 away to Crusaders, won 4/5 home to Cheetahs, won 5/8 home to Blues, won 6/8 home to Chiefs, won 3/6 home to Stormers.
Players out:
Joshua Mann-Rea, Dean Mumm, Dan Vickerman, Chris Alcock, Rocky Elsom. Jono Jenkins, Tevita Metuisela, Richard Stanford, Sarel Pretorius, Daniel Halangahu, Brackin Karauria-Henry, Atieli Pakalani, Nathan Trist.
Players In:
Oliver Atkins, Mitchell Chapman, Michael Hooper, Israel Folau, Michael Hodge, Peter Bentham, Cam Crawford
Australian conference betting
Reds – 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Sporting Bet)
Brumbies – 3.3 (Sky Bet)
Waratahs – 4.0 (Bet Victor)
Rebels – 13.0 (William Hill, Sporting Bet)
Force – 21.0 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
There won’t be too many (other than optimists in Melbourne and Perth perhaps) that disagree on it being a choice of 3 for the Australian conference.
It would be a surprise if the Waratahs didn’t improve on that 2012 record of 4 wins and with a new coach, big name recruits and a proper preseason – they will feel that those close defeats last time around can be turned around. They do have to adapt to Cheika’s methods though and there were 13 of the team in the last Wallabies squad – a relevant point given how the Lions tour may disrupt the season. At a bigger price, backing a ‘Tahs revival would have proved attractive but the 4.0 isn’t for me. Next season will be a different matter though.
The Reds have won 13/16 conference games in the last 2 seasons compared to 10/16 for the Waratahs (3/8 last season) and the Brumbies with 8/16 (6/8 in 2012). However, they don’t have a match against the Kings whereas the other 2 sides do and start the season without Will Genia. The Queenslanders also have 8 representatives in the Australian squad , which is 5 more than the Brumbies. Having won the Super Rugby crown in 2011, the Reds should be respected and bar Higginbotham have the vast majority of that side still on the books. The attention that will surely be directed towards Cooper could prove a distraction and I am interested how Richard Graham will get on and whether Ewen Mckenzie ends up leaving for the Wallabies by the end of the year.
It will be the Brumbies that get my seal of approval / kiss of death. They should be the team least effected by the International call ups and will have benefited from another preseason under Jake White and that impressive coaching team.
Last season they proved they were tough to beat and the foundations are there for another good year. 3 consecutive losses against the Reds would be a concern but with no Genia to contend with in round 1 (nor Higginbotham who scored 2 tries last season), there is a great chance to improve upon that head to head record. The Brumbies carried for over 600m in the Brisbane match, but were punished for 26 turnovers and only scored a single try. At home, it was the difference of a missed Holmes penalty that separated the sides. I think they will be highly motivated from just missing out and go one stage better in 2013
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